Cardiovascular diseases

A patient register and control program could help reduce the considerable morbidity and mortality caused by ARF and RHD

Jane Oliver · Myra Hardy · Joshua Osowicki · Daniel Engelman · Andrew C Steer · Katherine Gibney

Santa Claus is at high risk of developing atrial fibrillation. Despite this, no guidelines exist on the subject

Mark T Mills · David R Warriner

A national commitment to improved blood pressure control would lead to significant health and economic gains

Aletta E Schutte · Ruth Webster · Garry Jennings · Markus P Schlaich

Early unplanned readmissions are often potentially preventable; averting them could improve clinical outcomes for people with PAD

Vanessa Woelk · Peter Speck · Billingsley Kaambwa · Robert A Fitridge · Isuru Ranasinghe

A 57-year-old man presented with left facial droop and dysarthria due to a multiterritory ischaemic stroke affecting the right posterior and middle cerebral arteries

Jessica V Yao · Subodh B Joshi · John G Morgan · Melissa GY Lee

A previously healthy 45-year-old woman presented with a history of sudden-onset right hemiparesis and dysarthria while walking

Mário LM Silva Júnior · Tereza EFC Albuquerque · Eduardo S Melo

Women with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes remain understudied and undertreated

Carlo Andrea Pivato · Birgit Vogel · Roxana Mehran

Adherence to guideline-based therapy for people with NSTEACS could be improved in Australia

Bianca C Bachelet · Karice Hyun · Mario D'Souza · Clara K Chow · Julie Redfern · David B Brieger

Patient survival is more likely when general practitioners and their staff are trained in resuscitation and equipped with defibrillators

Siobhán Masterson · Tomás Barry

Clinical cardiac complications were reassuringly uncommon among more than 600 patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19

on behalf of the AUS‐COVID Investigators

To the Editor: The research letter by Hespe and colleagues1 on cardiovascular disease prevention is itself a missed opportunity to illuminate the complexities of person‐focused management of patients in general practice. While it provides a snapshot on cardiovascular disease prevention, it does not offer any exploration of the veracity or otherwise of these findings. Aggregate decontextualised and — as acknowledged — limited data ultimately fail to identify the true nature of the problem. Simply focusing on easily extractable data from computerised medical record systems, without linkage to the unique features and context of the person to whom these data belong, necessarily results in a distorted picture. Big data has the potential to inform only if it is appropriately interpreted and may be useful in process monitoring. Such data have a limited role in assessing general practitioner performance and outcomes of care.2 One must always remember that guidelines are nothing more than guides, which must be appropriately adapted to the unique circumstances of each patient. A more relevant research question would be: how appropriately or inappropriately are preventive treatments applied? This question addresses both overtreatment and undertreatment.3 As a binary question, however, it fails to ask more important contextual questions such as whether the patient can cope with the demands of the treatment, whether the treatment decision is a truly informed one, and whether it fits the needs and expectations of the patient given other health concerns. It ignores entirely the impact of a therapeutic alliance on actual health outcomes.4 Finally, the implied need for a hawkish attitude to prevention must take account of the fact that no intervention is risk‐free. Our obligation clearly states: primum non nocere. Research aiming to improve understanding of the interdependencies inherent in each and every consultation is urgently needed. The health and wellbeing outcomes of medical care are far less determined by biomedical interventions than by the contextual stressors in a person’s life.5 Providing general practice with the tools and resources to truly address the complexities of our patients’ needs is of utmost urgency.

Joachim P Sturmberg · Carmel M Martin

A 42-year-old man presented with acute onset substernal chest pain

Naim Mridha · Eloise Ward · Samual Hayman · Arun Dahiya · Sandhir Prasad

To the Editor: The toll of group A Streptococcus is dramatically unappreciated, despite increasing evidence of its burden.1 In Australia and New Zealand, we recently demonstrated that group A streptococcal throat and skin infections cause a sizable burden at the population level — cellulitis is the main contributor to the total burden of all group A streptococcal diseases and acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease contribute disproportionately relative to their frequency of occurrence.2,3 At a global level, the burden of group A Streptococcus is not abating. Global Burden of Disease data suggest that incident cases and deaths due to rheumatic heart disease alone have surpassed those of meningitis (Box). In 2019, more than 85% of rheumatic heart disease cases occurred among people aged under 35 years.4 No other group A streptococcal‐specific endpoints are available from the Global Burden of Disease data, yet all‐cause cellulitis was ranked the 24th most frequently occurring condition in high income countries in 2019.4 Group A Streptococcus causes outbreaks of poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis, contributing to the burden of chronic renal disease, and it is estimated to be the fifth most lethal pathogen on the planet, behind the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Plasmodium falciparum and S. pneumoniae, yet expenditure on vaccine development is only 0.17% of that spent on vaccines for HIV infection, malaria and tuberculosis.5 The divergence in numbers of cases and deaths due to group A Streptococcus compared with meningitis partially demonstrates the value of vaccination. Another major benefit of vaccination is a substantial reduction in antibiotic consumption. Indeed, pharyngitis is a major driver of antibiotic consumption globally, and an estimated 17% of antibiotic prescriptions for pharyngitis among children in the United States could be prevented by a group A Streptococcus vaccine.6 Two major initiatives aim to progress vaccine development. The Australian Strep A Vaccine Initiative (ASAVI) and the Strep A Vaccine Global Consortium (SAVAC) are addressing technical and investment barriers and leading at least one of the current vaccine candidates to an efficacy trial for pharyngitis prevention by 2024.5 An effective vaccine may prevent health and economic burdens due to the full range of group A streptococcal diseases and associated antibiotic consumption. Box – Estimated number of new cases (left) and deaths (right) due to meningitis and rheumatic heart disease globally* * Data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.4

Jeffrey W Cannon · Julie Bennett · Michael G Baker · Jonathan R Carapetis

Objective: To compare the frequency and outcomes of cardiac arrests in general practice clinics with those of paramedic‐witnessed cardiac arrests. Design, setting: Retrospective study; analysis of Victorian Ambulance Cardiac Arrest Registry data, 1 January 2000 – 30 December 2019. Participants: Patients with non‐traumatic cardiac arrests whom emergency medical services staff attempted to resuscitate. Main outcome measures: Survival to hospital discharge. Results: 6363 cases of cardiac arrest were identified: 216 in general practice clinics (3.4%) and 6147 witnessed by paramedics (96.6%). The proportion of patients presenting with initial shockable rhythms was larger in clinic (126 patients, 58.3%) than paramedic‐witnessed cases (1929, 31.4%). The proportion of general practice clinic cases in which defibrillation was provided in the clinic increased from 2 of 37 in 2000–2003 (5%) to 19 of 57 patients in 2016–2019 (33%); survival increased from 7 of 37 (19%) to 23 of 57 patients (40%). For patients with initial shockable rhythms, 57 of 126 in clinic cases (45%) and 1221 of 1929 people in paramedic‐witnessed cases (63.3%) survived to hospital discharge; of 47 general practice patients defibrillated by clinic staff, 27 survived (57%). For patients with initial shockable rhythms, the odds of survival were greater following paramedic‐witnessed events (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.39; 95% CI, 2.08–5.54) or general clinic arrests with defibrillation by clinic staff (aOR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.03–4.83) than for general practice clinic arrests in which arriving paramedics provided defibrillation. Conclusion: Emergency medical services should be alerted as soon as possible after people experience heart attack warning symptoms. Automated external defibrillators should be standard equipment in general practice clinics, enabling prompt defibrillation, which may substantially reduce the risk of death for people in cardiac arrest.

Brian Haskins · Ziad Nehme · Peter A Cameron · Karen Smith

A patent foramen ovale (PFO) is an interatrial shunt, with a prevalence of 20–34% in the general population. While most people do not have secondary manifestations of a PFO, some reported sequelae include ischaemic stroke, migraine, platypnoea–orthodeoxia syndrome and decompression illness. Furthermore, in some cases, PFO closure should be considered for patients before neurosurgery and for patients with concomitant carcinoid syndrome. Recent trials support PFO closure for ischaemic stroke patients with high risk PFOs and absence of other identified stroke mechanisms. While PFOs can be associated with migraine with auras, with some patients reporting symptomatic improvement after closure, the evidence from randomised controlled trials is less clear in supporting the use of PFO closure for migraine treatment. PFO closure for other indications such as platypnoea–orthodeoxia syndrome, decompression illness and paradoxical embolism are based largely on case series with good clinical outcomes. PFO closure can be performed as a day surgical intervention with high procedural success and low risk of complications.

Kenneth K Cho · Shaun Khanna · Phillip Lo · Daniel Cheng · David Roy

Improving systems of care can achieve earlier treatment and increase survival

John K French

Intensive metabolic control reduces the incidence and progression of diabetes‐related micro‐ and macrovascular complications.1,2 Nevertheless, the risk of developing cardiovascular disease is higher for people with diabetes,3 although cardiovascular disease incidence rates are generally declining more rapidly for people with diabetes than for other people.4,5 We analysed hospital discharge data from the Victorian Admitted Episode Dataset6 for 1 January 1999 – 31 December 2016. We identified incident cases of three cardiovascular disease complications (acute myocardial infarction [AMI], stroke, and heart failure) by International Statistical Classification of Diseases, tenth revision, Australian modification (ICD‐10‐AM) codes. Data for 1999‒2003 were examined to ensure that admissions during the observation period (2004‒2016) were index admissions for the specific complication, but were not included in our main analysis. Admission rates were separately calculated for people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes (numbers of people with diagnosed diabetes, by year, were obtained from the National Diabetes Services Scheme, which captures 80–90% of diabetes diagnoses7) and for people without diabetes (derived from Australian Bureau of Statistics census data8). We analysed changes in admission rates by Joinpoint regression (https://surveillance.cancer.gov/joinpoint); points at which changes in the direction or magnitude of linear trends were statistically significant (P < 0.05) were determined with permutation tests. Each trend segment was described by an annual percentage change (APC), and the change for the entire study period as the mean APC (further details: online Supporting Information). The study was approved by the St Vincent’s Hospital Melbourne Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC/18/SVHM/146). A total of 382 107 patients were admitted to Victorian hospitals during 2004–2016 with cardiovascular complications: 278 991 without diabetes (73%), 3645 with type 1 diabetes (1%), and 99 471 with type 2 diabetes (26%). AMI admission rates declined during this period for people with type 1 (mean APC, –7.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], –13.4% to –1.5%) or type 2 diabetes (mean APC, –11.4%; 95% CI, –13.0% to –9.9%), as well as for people without diabetes (mean APC, –5.0%; 95% CI, –6.7% to –3.4%) (Box 1, Box 2). Stroke admission rates declined significantly during 2004–2016 for people with type 1 diabetes (mean APC, –7.2%; 95% CI, –12.2% to –1.9%); for people with type 2 diabetes, rates declined during 2005–2011 and 2014–2016, but not during 2011–2014 (overall change: –11.9%; 95% CI, –17.0% to –6.5%). For patients without diabetes, the decline during 2005–2014 was significant (mean APC, –4.1%; 95% CI, –5.8% to –2.3%), but not during 2015–2016 (Box 1, Box 2). Admissions for heart failure declined during 2004–2016 for people with type 1 diabetes (mean APC, –10.3%; 95% CI, –14.1% to –6.4%) or type 2 diabetes (mean APC, –9.2%; 95% CI, –11.0% to –7.3%), and also for people without diabetes (mean APC, –2.8%; 95% CI, –4.1% to –1.5%) (Box 1, Box 2). As hospital discharge coding data do not provide information on metabolic control or medication use, we could not assess whether cardiovascular risk factor modification and use of specific medications were associated with changes in admission rates. We also lacked information on disease duration for patients with hospital‐coded diabetes. Further, we have counted admissions of any patients who had presented with complications before 1998 (ie, outside our 5‐year clearance period) as incident admissions; these patients would be at very high risk of further admissions, and their inclusion may have inflated the admission rates we report for the observation period of our study. Few recent studies have assessed outcomes for all three cardiovascular complications in a single investigation. Cardiovascular complication‐related admissions to Victorian hospitals declined during 2004–2016 more rapidly for people with diabetes than for those without diabetes. The relatively greater absolute decline in the numbers of admissions of people with diabetes may be related to the fact that they are considered to be at high risk for cardiovascular disease and are therefore treated more aggressively; the scope for reducing risk with multifactorial target‐driven interventions is greater in these patients. Nevertheless, admission rates for cardiovascular complications of people with diabetes remain relatively high. Box 1 – Age‐ and sex‐adjusted admission rates for cardiovascular complications (with 95% confidence intervals), Victoria, 2004–2016, by diabetes status of patients Box 2 – Annual percentage change (APC) in admissions for cardiovascular complications, Victoria, 2004–2016, by diabetes status Change in event rate, 2004–2016* Change in event rate, by period* Cardiovascular complication and diabetes status Admissions Overall change (95% CI) Mean APC (95% CI%) Mean APC (95% CI) Acute myocardial infarction No diabetes 114 965 –24.8% (–24.9% to –24.7%) –5.0% (–6.7% to –3.4%) — Type 1 diabetes 1272 –7.7% (–8.8% to –6.7%) –7.7% (–13.4% to –1.5%) 1. 2005–2009: +7.0% (–9.7% to +22.8%) 2. 2009–2016: –15.1% (–21.3% to –8.7%) Type 2 diabetes 15 278 –69.0% (–69.0% to –68.8%) –11.4% (–13.0% to –9.9%) — Stroke No diabetes 52 320 –10.9% (–13.6% to –10.6%) –1.7% (–4.9% to +1.5%) 1. 2005–2014: –4.1% (–5.8% to –2.3%) 2. 2014–2016: +9.6% (–10.2% to +33.8%) Type 1 diabetes 504 –44.4% (–50.0% to –41.4%) –7.2% (–12.2% to –1.9%) — Type 2 diabetes 17 440 –68.0% (–68.0% to –67.9%) –11.9% (–17.0% to –6.5%) 1. 2005–2011: –14.7% (–17.6% to –11.7%) 2. 2011–2014: +5.8% (–19.0% to +38.2%) 3. 2014–2016: –26.1% (–39.8% to –9.2%) Heart failure No diabetes 135 524 –22.2% (–22.3% to –22.2%) –2.8% (–4.1% to –1.5%) — Type 1 diabetes 1393 –55.1% (–58.6% to –52.4%) –10.3% (–14.1% to –6.4%) — Type 2 diabetes 52 831 –67.3% (–67.4% to –67.3%) –9.2% (–11.0% to –7.3%) — * Adjusted for age and sex. Event rates for 2004 and 2016 are included in the expanded version of this table in the online Supporting Information.

Katerina V Kiburg · Andrew I MacIsaac · Andrew Wilson · Vijaya Sundararajan · Richard J MacIsaac

Objective: To assess long term survival and patient characteristics associated with survival following acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Australia and New Zealand. Design: Cohort study. Setting, participants: All patients admitted with AMI (ICD‐10‐AM codes I21.0‒I21.4) to all public and most private hospitals in Australia and New Zealand during 2009‒2015. Main outcome measure: All‐cause mortality up to seven years after an AMI. Results: 239 402 initial admissions with AMI were identified; the mean age of the patients was 69.3 years (SD, 14.3 years), 154 287 were men (64.5%), and 64 335 had ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI; 26.9%). 7‐year survival after AMI was 62.3% (STEMI, 70.8%; non‐ST‐elevation myocardial infarction [NSTEMI], 59.2%); survival exceeded 85% for people under 65 years of age, but was 17.4% for those aged 85 years or more. 120 155 patients (50.2%) underwent revascularisation (STEMI, 72.2%; NSTEMI, 42.1%); 7‐year survival exceeded 80% for patients in each group who underwent revascularisation, and was lower than 45% for those who did not. Being older (85 years or older v 18–54 years: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 10.6; 95% CI, 10.1–11.1) or a woman (aHR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.13–1.17) were each associated with greater long term mortality during the study period, as was prior heart failure (aHR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.76‒1.83). Several non‐cardiac conditions and geriatric syndromes common in these patients were independently associated with lower long term survival, including major and metastatic cancer, cirrhosis and end‐stage liver disease, and dementia. Conclusion: AMI care in Australia and New Zealand is associated with high rates of long term survival; 7‐year rates exceed 80% for patients under 65 years of age and for those who undergo revascularisation. Efforts to further improve survival should target patients with NSTEMI, who are often older and have several comorbid conditions, for whom revascularisation rates are low and survival after AMI poor.

Bora Nadlacki · Dennis Horton · Sadia Hossain · Saranya Hariharaputhiran · Linh Ngo · Anna Ali · Bernadette Aliprandi‐Costa · Chris J Ellis · Robert JT Adams · Renuka Visvanathan · Isuru Ranasinghe

We can learn from all clinical trials, whatever their outcomes

Mark R Nelson

The use of coronary artery calcium scoring can assist in defining risk in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Australia.

Garry LR Jennings · Ralph Audehm · Warrick Bishop · Clara K Chow · Siaw-Teng Liaw · Danny Liew · Sara M Linton

To the Editor: Improving our understanding of the place of computed tomography (CT) coronary calcium scoring in the assessment of cardiovascular disease risk is critical. However, we disagree with the conclusions in the article by Venkataraman and colleagues1 that the results of their study support the use of CT coronary calcium scoring in individuals with intermediate risk using the Australian cardiovascular disease risk (ACVDR) calculator. Unfortunately, the study has significant flaws in its outcome measures — CT coronary artery calcium scoring and Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) — which result in misleading conclusions. The authors examined the predictive power of the ACVDR to detect individuals having a calcium score greater than zero or greater than 100. However, since CT coronary calcium scoring is not a reference standard for cardiovascular disease, this is an invalid outcome for estimating the comparative accuracy of the various cardiovascular disease risk scores. This study also used the MESA risk score as an outcome measure, although this is a risk calculator that has not been validated in the Australian population. As the MESA score was developed to include CT coronary calcium scoring, any risk calculator that also includes this score is likely to appear to perform better than risk calculators that do not. The authors state that their “findings suggest that Australian patients are undertreated by international standards”. The threshold recommended by the current guidelines for cholesterol‐lowering medication in the United States — used by the authors as the international standard — would more than triple the proportion of the Australian population recommended to take medication.2 Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease involves individuals who have not yet had a cardiovascular event, making it particularly incumbent on medical professionals that recommendations consider benefits and harms. The information gained from CT coronary calcium scoring needs to demonstrate that benefits outweigh risks, such as radiation exposure, costs, and incidental findings. Trials to date have shown no improvements in health outcomes. Overall, patients are more likely to be reclassified in a higher risk category, some correctly, but higher absolute numbers may be incorrectly reclassified as high risk.3 Individuals with a calcium score of zero are still at risk of cardiovascular disease, about 0.5% per year. The notion that images seen on CT coronary calcium scoring demonstrate the presence or absence of disease is appealing, but it is a gross simplification.4 While CT coronary calcium scoring may have a place in risk assessment, the findings from this study do not support its use.

Andrew Hayen · Paul P Glasziou · Jenny A Doust