Issues
Volume 214 Issue 4
Perspectives
Not in my backyard: COVID‐19 vaccine development requires someone to be infected somewhere
We must consider how we can support communities hosting vaccine efficacy trials
George S Heriot · Euzebiusz Jamrozik
Screening and brief interventions for harmful alcohol use: where to now?
Current calls for primary care‐based screening and brief interventions for alcohol use should be reviewed Alcohol continues to contribute to significant morbidity and mortality in the Australian community. It is responsible for 4.5% of total disease burden,1 and 4186 deaths in 20172 and over 144 000 hospitalisations per year.3 While levels of alcohol consumption are slowly declining, alcohol continues to be a major preventable contributor to disease and death among Australians. Currently, over 25% of Australians report consuming alcohol at moderate or high risk levels.4 Over the past 20 years, there has been considerable research into the value of alcohol screening, brief intervention and referral for treatment (SBIRT) in primary health care as a public health measure to reduce alcohol consumption and related harms. The Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT)5 was developed to assist with widespread standardised implementation of screening, and brief intervention for alcohol use disorder and has been extensively researched. More recently, the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST)6 was developed to address a broad range of substances. There is good evidence based on numerous randomised controlled trials that brief interventions for alcohol use result in reductions in drinking which are at least sustained for 12 months.7 However, the actual size of the reduction in drinking has been revised down from 2007 when it was estimated that SBIRT would result in a reduction of alcohol intake by 57 g (nearly six standard drinks) per week,8 to 20 g (two standard drinks) per week.7 This reduction in effect size will inevitably affect estimates in cost‐effectiveness models. While overall average consumption has reduced, at least based on self‐report, SBIRT has been found to have little effect on frequency of binge drinking, numbers of drinking days per week, and intensity of drinking.7 It is therefore likely to have little effect on adverse events from intoxication, the major cause of harm for younger people. Despite strong evidence that SBIRT will result in self‐reported reduced drinking (albeit less reduction than previously thought), there have been problems with real‐world translation into practice, both on a large scale multi‐practice level9,10 and a national basis as demonstrated in Scotland.11 In terms of demonstrated effects on alcohol consumption at a population level, the most extensive program implemented so far has been Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy.11 This program aimed to deliver SBIRT across the entire primary care, emergency department and antenatal populations and was part of a suite of measures to address alcohol‐related harms in Scotland. Other measures included prohibition of multi‐buy discounting (eg, “buy five, get one free”), minimum unit pricing (unsuccessfully challenged by the Scottish Whisky Association in the Scottish Supreme Court and now being implemented), tightening of liquor licencing processes, and a tripling of investment in treatment and support services. Subsequent measures of alcohol consumption across Scotland, Wales and England have not demonstrated any significant differences in the trajectories of alcohol consumption between these countries. Consumption has decreased in all three countries.11 Although 43% of hazardous and harmful drinkers were screened in Scotland and received brief interventions, data on exactly who was screened were difficult to collect, and screening among women attending antenatal care was only partially implemented.11 Young people were difficult to access, probably due to lower health service attendance rates. Furthermore, a 2018 Cochrane review7 found that research into the effects of SBIRT on alcohol‐related harms, the end point of most importance, has been very limited, and was unable to reach a conclusion regarding the effect of SBIRT on alcohol‐related harms. The studies that have looked at this important issue found that there was no effect.7 In addition, recent research has cast doubt on the effectiveness of referral to treatment among the higher risk (mostly dependent) drinkers. Frost and colleagues12 reviewed the effects of brief interventions on rates of referral. They found that patients at high risk who had received a brief intervention actually had less contact with specialist addiction services in the year following the brief intervention compared with those who had not received the brief intervention. Despite these concerns regarding effectiveness in real‐world settings, SBIRT has been recommended over the past decade in Australia by the 2009 National Preventative Health Strategy,13 and by the National Alcohol Strategy in 2019.14 Significant investment in structurally supporting SBIRT in primary care or other settings has not been forthcoming from Commonwealth or state governments. Currently in Australia, we have a situation where the Australian National Alcohol Strategy advocates for the adoption of SBIRT. This is despite a lack of evidence that it is effective in reducing harms even in research settings, as well as a lack of evidence for its effect on reducing population levels of drinking, and evidence that it does not result in increased engagement in specialist treatment even in well resourced health systems which have identified this as a target area. However, despite the current evidence that population‐based screening does not seem to have an effect on overall alcohol consumption, there is no denying the clinical value of addressing unhealthy alcohol consumption when identified in primary care. The AUDIT and the ASSIST both explore relevant key areas such as frequency of use, harms and dependence, which are important for the clinician and the patient to understand and address. They enable the clinician and patient to determine the risks associated with the patient’s current drinking patterns, and to start a conversation which then enables an agreed response. They should still be promoted as tools to use when a patient has been identified as drinking excessively through normal clinical processes. Despite current levels of alcohol‐related morbidity, the general practice environment does not support general practitioners responding to the problem. Longer consultations are insufficiently remunerated, skills development has been suboptimal, and secondary and tertiary services are not readily available when and where required. SBIRT alone will not address the current levels of alcohol use in Australia and associated harms. There should be increased emphasis on development of the skills base of the medical workforce at student, general practice and other specialty training levels so that clinicians can respond to hazardous and harmful alcohol and substance use effectively. Tools such as the AUDIT and the ASSIST may well have a role here. Use of current GP Medicare items such as mental health care plans, chronic disease management plans and team care arrangements should be encouraged and facilitated to better support complex care for patients with problems relating to alcohol and substance use. In addition, addiction services should work with general practice to streamline access to advice and referrals and improve communication channels. At the same time, policy changes to reduce alcohol‐related harms should continue to be pursued. Medical bodies including the Australian Medical Association and the Australian colleges representing physicians, GPs, surgeons, psychiatrists and emergency physicians have advocated strongly for such changes regarding alcohol, but despite this advocacy, most of the Australian community has not felt the need for major change. In general, policy change will only occur in response to community concern. The 2019 National Drug Strategy Household Survey indicated that the Australian community continues to identify methamphetamine as the drug of most concern, above alcohol. In addition, support continues to decline for reducing trading hours for pubs and clubs and increasing the minimum drinking age, as well as for all other evidence‐based measures aimed at reducing the harms nominated in the survey.4 It appears that the Australian community currently least supports the harm reduction strategies with the strongest evidence, but on the other hand supports the strategies with the least evidence. If there were more community support, other policy changes could include reviews of pricing of alcohol and packaged liquor outlet density, further regulation of advertising of alcohol, and further changes to drink driving laws. These might include requiring a zero blood alcohol level for broader groups of drivers such as all younger drivers (ie, under 25 years of age) and drivers with previous drink driving convictions. There should be a renewed emphasis on alcohol as a significant driver of morbidity and mortality at three levels: on the clinical level, renewed emphasis on education and training for medical practitioners to enable clinicians to better respond to people drinking harmfully; on the health care structural level, changing remuneration arrangements to better support primary care treatment for people with alcohol‐related problems should be advocated for; and in parallel with these changes, increased advocacy for changes to policies that reduce drinking and related harms on a population level, with particular emphasis on high risk populations. Health professionals are generally not trained as advocates. Bringing about change, even when supported by sound evidence, is difficult and takes time. Vested interests have sophisticated advocacy skills and are well resourced. Opportunities for the development of advocacy skills at medical student and postgraduate levels should be developed and promoted. Australia remains a world leader in tobacco control. The health professions should join forces, building on the lessons from tobacco control, to change the way the Australian community views alcohol, and then lead changes in clinical practice and policy which will reduce alcohol‐related harms.
Chris B Holmwood
Ophthalmology and the emergence of artificial intelligence
Rapid advances in AI in ophthalmology are a harbinger of things to come for other fields of medicine The autonomous detection and triage of eye disease, or even accurate estimations of gender, age, and blood pressure from a simple retinal photo, may sound like the realms of science fiction, but advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have already made this a reality.1 Ophthalmology is at the vanguard of the development and clinical application of AI. Advances in the field may provide useful insights into the application of this technology in health care more broadly. Artificial intelligence Once described as the capacity of intelligent machines to imitate human intelligence and behaviour, AI now describes many theories and practices used to achieve computer intelligence (Box 1).2 Machine learning is an application of AI that uses algorithms or statistical models to make decisions or predictions. Complex patterns and relationships are learned from data to generate an outcome.2 Machine learning traditionally relies on the extraction of features from the data by human operators which then serve as input variables to optimise algorithm performance. The performance of these systems is constrained by the features that are recognised as important by humans. In contrast, artificial neural networks are an advanced method of machine learning able to extract features without explicit programming.2 Deep learning is the construction of multiple layers of artificial neural networks which can identify features in data that are not recognisable by humans. Although deep learning systems may be powerful, they lack human‐crafted inputs, meaning that large quantities of data are typically required to train algorithms. Artificial intelligence in ophthalmology As a discipline, ophthalmology is at the forefront of AI system development and translation in clinical practice. Leading uses of the technology include detecting, classifying and triaging a range of diseases, such as diabetic retinopathy, age‐related macular degeneration (AMD), glaucoma, retinopathy of prematurity, and retinal vein occlusion, from clinical images.3 The increasing global burden of eye diseases, coupled with the development of new therapies for previously untreatable conditions, has served as a major driver for AI innovation in ophthalmology. As a case in point, there are presently over 430 million people living with diabetes, most of whom require annual or biennial screening for retinopathy using retinal photography. This vast demand for diabetic eye screening services has stimulated the development of AI algorithms to identify sight‐threatening disease. Several algorithms have achieved performance that meets or exceeds that of human experts.4,5 Accordingly, in 2018, the United States Food and Drug Administration approved an AI system to detect referable diabetic retinopathy from retinal photographs, the first autonomous diagnostic system to be approved in any field of medicine.6 Advances in deep learning have extended to other imaging modalities that are commonly used in ophthalmology. Ocular coherence tomography is an imaging technology that produces highly detailed, depth‐resolved images of the retina. A recent collaboration between researchers and clinicians at Google DeepMind, Moorfields Eye Hospital and University College London culminated in the development of a deep learning system capable of detecting and triaging more than 50 different retinal conditions at levels equivalent to a panel of experienced ophthalmologists.7 AI systems with the capacity to detect a wide range of diseases, such as this, are likely to be most useful in clinical practice. A highly anticipated innovation is the development of AI systems capable of accurate disease prediction. Such tools could assist in managing patient expectations, improve the quality of care and reduce treatment costs.3 In ophthalmology, prediction models have been trained to personalise re‐treatment intervals for patients with neovascular AMD,8 predict progression from early to late AMD,9 estimate the extent of future visual field defects in patients with glaucoma,10 and predict diabetic retinopathy progression.11 Although these models presently achieve only moderate levels of accuracy, their performance has been shown to be superior to humans in several studies.3,8 Future advances in the accuracy of prediction models will likely come from the use of large longitudinal datasets drawing on multiple data sources, together with the development of more advanced AI systems.3 Despite these significant advances, AI systems are not in widespread clinical use and in some cases real‐world performance has been inferior compared with in silico validation.2,3 Training and validation of deep learning algorithms with large, representative data (eg, data from people of different ethnicities) acquired using multiple devices (eg, different retinal camera models) and data collection protocols (eg, retinal photographs acquired with and without pupil dilation) are key to achieving clinical applicability.4,5 This approach was used in the development of deep learning systems for retinal photographic screening for diabetic retinopathy, AMD and glaucoma which are now being used in large scale screening programs in Singapore and China.4,5 In these programs, AI is used to identify images without evidence of disease, so that human graders can focus their efforts on the images of those with disease, enabling improved efficiency and cost savings.12 Challenges to the clinical adoption of artificial intelligence Several obstacles to the adoption of AI in health care remain. The training of deep learning systems requires access to large amounts of medical data which has significant implications relating to privacy and data protection. In the context of ophthalmology, this is particularly pertinent, as the retinal vasculature may be considered biometric data, making it impossible to completely anonymise retinal photographs.3 Furthermore, characteristics that are not visible to human examiners, such as age and sex, can now be accurately predicted from a single retinal photograph using deep learning.1 Several recent major breaches of data protection laws relating to AI system development have already come to light.13 While individual patient data used to train an algorithm do not remain within the system, incorrect handling and sharing of data may lead to patients withdrawing consent to the use of their data under General Data Protection Regulation laws. It is not certain how data withdrawal requests will be dealt with when an individual’s data have been used in the process of training a deep learning system. Accordingly, developments in AI need to be accompanied by advanced data protection and security measures. Another challenge to the acceptance of deep learning algorithms in medicine is the difficulty in determining the basis for clinical decisions made by these systems, informally described as the “black box” problem. Visualisation tools have been developed to assist clinicians by highlighting the salient image features that contribute to the AI system classification (Box 2).12 This has the potential to create trust in system‐generated decisions, particularly if the features correspond with those used by experienced clinicians for clinical decision making.14 Interpretability is particularly important when considering legal liability in the event of patient harm arising from the use of AI in medicine. In traditional malpractice cases, a physician may be asked to justify the basis for a particular clinical decision and this is then considered in light of conventional medical practice.15 In comparison, challenges in identifying the basis for a given decision made by AI might pose problems for clinicians whose actions were based on that decision. The extent to which the clinician, as opposed to the technology manufacturer, should be held accountable for harm arising from AI use is a subject of intense debate.15 Factors such as the manner in which these AI systems are used and their classification as either products or software are likely to have important bearings on how cases are litigated.15 Further challenges for existing regulatory frameworks come from algorithms that continue to learn and evolve over time.15 Understanding how a given system is trained, its accuracy, and its operational limits is of great importance. Oversampling of a particular population or disease severity during training has the potential to introduce bias.4 Therefore, consideration of performance thresholds will help to inform appropriate use of AI systems. The Australian Government, through the CSIRO and Data61;16 the Australian Council of Learned Academies;17 the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences;18 and specialty groups, such as the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists,19 have made significant efforts to develop frameworks and policies for the effective and ethical development of AI. These consultative works have highlighted key priorities, including building a specialist AI workforce, ensuring effective data governance and enabling trust in AI through transparency and appropriate safety standards. Through targeted investment in research and development, Australia is aiming to advance its AI competitiveness. These framework documents provide guidance for developers, clinicians and health care consumers to navigate this rapidly evolving field. Broad dissemination of these documents should form part of a wider public engagement and education campaign to ensure that AI is developed and used in a considered and careful manner in health care. Rapid advances in AI in ophthalmology are a harbinger of things to come for other fields of medicine. While these technologies may eventually lead to more efficient, cost‐effective and safer health care, they are not a panacea in isolation. The successful integration of AI into health systems will need to first consider patient needs, ethical challenges and the performance limits of individual systems. Box 1 – Relationship between artificial intelligence and its subtypes Box 2 – Original retinal photograph of right eye with macular degeneration (A). Heat map of image A showing visualisation of traditional features associated with macular degeneration, such as central scarring (B). Original retinal photograph of left eye with referable diabetic retinopathy (C). Heat map of image C showing visualisation of traditional features, such as micro‐aneurysms and haemorrhages (D)
Jane Scheetz · Mingguang He · Peter Wijngaarden
Monitoring the genetic testing and life insurance moratorium in Australia: a national research project
Is the current genetics and insurance moratorium an effective long term regulatory solution for Australia? Genetic discrimination in life insurance is a longstanding issue in Australia,1,2 and has been the subject of two government inquiries.3,4 The use of genetic test results in underwriting continues to be self‐regulated by the life insurance industry.5 In 2019, following Parliamentary Joint Committee recommendations,4 the industry voluntarily introduced a moratorium restricting the use of genetic test results in life insurance underwriting for polices worth up to AU$500 000. Although the moratorium is an important step, concerns remain around the financial limits, public awareness, lack of government oversight and compliance monitoring. The impact and effectiveness of the moratorium needs evaluation to inform the planned 2022 review. A new research project has been funded by the Australian Government’s Genomic Health Futures Mission to serve that important function. Genomic testing has the potential to improve disease prevention and public health. For example, predictive testing of BRCA1/2 genes can identify women at high risk of developing breast and ovarian cancer, where risk can be mitigated through preventive surgery and/or screening. As genomic testing becomes more widespread, patients, general practitioners and other health professionals will increasingly be required to address issues related to privacy, data security, genetic discrimination and insurance.2,6 Although health insurance is community‐rated in Australia and therefore not subject to genetic discrimination,1 the use of genetic test results in life insurance is allowed under the Disability Discrimination Act 1992 (Cth). This means that life insurance companies can legally refuse coverage or increase premiums based on genetic test results. A number of ethical, social and medical implications arise when genetic test results are permitted to be used in insurance underwriting, especially predictive testing in otherwise healthy people.1,7 Previous studies show that fear of insurance discrimination deters individuals from taking clinically indicated genetic tests and participating in genetic research.1 In a study where predictive genetic testing for Lynch syndrome (which causes an increased risk of colorectal and other cancers) was offered, the proportion of people who declined testing when informed of the insurance implications was more than double the proportion who declined without knowledge of insurance implications.8 There are different concerns from the insurance industry perspective, including the possible actuarial implications of adding genomic information to risk models. Genomic test results can not only reveal risk (positive results), but also indicate reduced risk (negative results), potentially changing the dynamics of actuarial calculations. The notion of adverse selection, whereby individuals at high genetic risk may be more likely to take out insurance policies, is also raised by insurers. It is critical for the optimisation of genomic medicine that individuals can make informed choices about genetic testing and research participation without fear of insurance implications. Further, moral implications regarding the use of genetic information for insurance underwriting extend beyond actuarial fairness to include consideration of public interests such as justice, beneficence, autonomy and public health.7 Several governments internationally have therefore banned or restricted the use of genetic test results in risk‐rated insurance, including Canada, the United Kingdom and Europe, using various legal mechanisms.9 The National Health Genomics Policy Framework and Implementation Plan 2018–20216 is a strategic policy of the Council of Australian Governments, which recognises the potential of genomics for public health while acknowledging the need for ethical mechanisms for its delivery. Developing a national approach to issues including genetic discrimination was listed as a strategic priority for action in the Framework and listed as the first short term national priority in the implementation plan,6 making it one of the most significant ethical, legal and social issues facing genomic medicine in Australia. However, debate remains regarding the most effective mechanism of regulation. Following previous examination of these issues by the Australian Law Reform Commission and Australian Health Ethics Committee,3 a recent inquiry of the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Corporations and Financial Services into the life insurance industry considered the use of genetic test results in life insurance.4 The report expressed strong concerns about insurer access to genetic information and recommended that: a moratorium be implemented to “prohibit any life insurers from using the outcomes of predictive genetic tests at least in the medium term … as a matter of some urgency and [in] a form similar to the United Kingdom’s Moratorium”;4 the Financial Services Council (FSC), together with the Australian Genetic Non‐Discrimination Working Group (of which the authors are members), assess the consumer impact of a moratorium; and the federal government monitor the implementation of, and adherence to, such a moratorium, and if needed, implement legislation on the issue. The Australian Government has not yet responded to the Parliamentary Joint Committee recommendations. However, the FSC, Australia’s peak national body for life insurers, introduced an industry‐led moratorium in July 2019. Under the moratorium, Australian consumers need no longer disclose their genetic test results when applying for policies up to $500 000 for death/total permanent disability, $200 000 for trauma/critical illness, and $4000/month for income protection cover.10 The moratorium applies to all genetic test results, including research results and results obtained from internet‐based direct‐to‐consumer tests, which are increasingly resulting in clinical referrals.11 Above these financial limits (which are cumulative across multiple policies), life insurers can still ask for, and use, any existing genetic test result, which can lead to refused or delayed cover, exclusions or increased premiums. However, insurers must not require applicants to undergo a genetic test. Applicants can choose to disclose a favourable genetic test result (showing that an individual with a family history of a genetic condition does not have the familial genetic variant) to offset the effects on underwriting of an adverse family history. The FSC moratorium is a self‐regulated industry standard which is not legally enforceable — insurance companies’ legal right to discriminate on the basis of genetic test results remains. By contrast, the UK moratorium (which commenced in 2001) is an agreement between the UK government and the Association of British Insurers. It applies to all life insurance policies without any financial limits, with only one exception for Huntington disease, a progressive, neurodegenerative genetic disorder. Predictive genetic test results for Huntington disease must be disclosed by individuals in the UK only when applying for cover worth over £500 000 (about AU$900 000).12 All other individuals can make informed decisions about whether to have genetic testing or participate in genomic research without concerns about insurance implications. The FSC moratorium is an important step towards consumer protection, but concerns remain around its financial limits, interpretation of its terms, and lack of compliance monitoring. The FSC moratorium has no government or independent regulatory oversight, and as recommended by the Parliamentary Joint Committee, there is a critical need to monitor its implementation and effectiveness. The FSC will review the moratorium and its terms in 2022, to consider amendment and/or extension beyond its current 2024 end date.10 Currently, there are no mechanisms in place to collect independent evidence from different stakeholder perspectives to inform this review and the Australian Government has not indicated any intention to do so directly. A new research project, funded by the first competitive round of the Genomic Health Futures Mission, part of the Australian Government’s Medical Research Future Fund,13 has now commenced to serve that critical function until 2023. The A‐GLIMMER (Australian Genetics and Life Insurance Moratorium: Monitoring the Effectiveness and Response) project brings together leading researchers, clinicians, patient groups, and policy experts in Australia to answer the question of whether the FSC moratorium is an adequate and effective long term regulatory solution for Australia. The project aims to address this question by collecting a range of quantitative and qualitative data after the implementation of the moratorium, from different stakeholders including consumers, health care professionals, researchers and the insurance industry. In some cases, the data collected will be directly comparable to similar data collected and published before the moratorium.14,15 The project has widespread support across the community. More than 20 project partners, including the FSC, and other supporting bodies have provided written support and pledged resources towards the study. The project is endorsed by the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, the Human Genetics Society of Australasia and Australian Genomics, a collaborative national network of clinical, research, academic and community organisations dedicated to implementation of genomics for health and the development of appropriate genomics policy. The overarching aim of A-GLIMMER is to ensure sufficient evidence is collected in the coming years to inform government and the 2022 FSC review, to help determine the effectiveness of the FSC moratorium as a long term regulatory solution in Australia. See the Box for a summary of project aims. A‐GLIMMER is divided into four work streams, which will collect data from consumers, health professionals, research studies and the insurance industry. A final report will be compiled at the conclusion of the project, and will be provided to the federal government to assist with future policy decisions. Although the project will not conclude until 2023, its findings will help inform the proposed FSC review in 2022. Achieving an adequate policy solution to this issue in Australia is essential for ensuring optimal integration of genomics into Australian health care, engendering public trust and consumer participation in genomics, and paving the way to realise the many benefits of genomic medicine for Australia. Box – Aims of A‐GLIMMER (Australian Genetics and Life Insurance Moratorium: Monitoring the Effectiveness and Response) A‐GLIMMER will: assess dissemination and awareness of the Financial Services Council moratorium following its implementation describe the impact of the moratorium on consumers, health care, research and financial services evaluate the effectiveness of the self‐regulated Financial Services Council moratorium as a long term regulatory solution
Jane Tiller · Ingrid Winship · Margaret FA Otlowski · Paul A Lacaze
The value proposition of investigator‐initiated clinical trials conducted by networks
Investigator‐initiated trials run by clinical trial networks provide net economic benefits to health systems Delivery of optimal health care relies on evidence from randomised clinical trials, among other factors, to inform best practice. While the generation of such evidence requires resources, both national and international assessments of health and economic benefits resulting from medical research indicate large returns on investment.1,2,3 In Australia, during the decade 2006–2015, more than 10 000 clinical trials were conducted through Australian clinical trials networks (CTNs), including more than 5 million participants, ranking Australia in the top tier of clinical trial activity.4 Industry‐funded clinical trials accounted for an estimated $930 million of the total $1.1 billion spent annually on clinical trials, with National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) funding accounting for about $164 million annually.4 While the proportion of funding for non‐industry‐sponsored investigator‐initiated clinical trials (IITs) is relatively small, these studies account for more than half of Australia’s clinical trial activity.4 This study funding balance is similar to what is reported elsewhere.5 In Australia, IITs conducted by Australasian CTNs have had a major impact on the improvement of health care quality and outcomes around the world.6,7 IITs are designed and conducted by independent clinicians and academic researchers to generate clinical evidence to improve health care. Benefits are multilayered and not restricted to the discovery of new therapies. Much of the benefit comes from identifying and addressing uncertainty in existing practices; evaluating a range of treatment options that address key unanswered questions free of commercial imperatives, identifying alternative and potentially more efficient diagnostic strategies; and identifying more effective models of care or expensive interventions that are no more active than the lower cost alternative. Australasia has large, geographically dispersed CTNs across multiple clinical areas,8 with many more having been launched since the original report (personal communication Australian Clinical Trials Alliance [ACTA]). Between one‐quarter and one‐third of all Australian Government‐funded NHMRC support for clinical trials between 2004 and 2014 was awarded to IITs conducted by an established CTN.8 CTNs ensure clinically important, high priority and relevant research questions are appropriately conducted and provide efficiency through established infrastructure. Within Australasia, CTNs are widely regarded as key drivers of innovation and represent good value for public investment.8 Although the Australian Government invests in IITs and the CTNs that coordinate them, their value has not been well characterised. Governments are increasingly looking to systematically integrate activities that generate high quality evidence (such as IITs) with other aspects of the health care system (such as measurement of health outcomes or development of safety and quality policies) to build self‐improving, sustainable systems (Box). Understanding the potential return on investment is therefore paramount. In 2015, ACTA and the NHMRC profiled 37 established CTNs in Australia.8 Subsequently, a cost–benefit analysis for the profiled networks was calculated for those that i) were operational for more than 10 years; ii) had conducted more than five high impact peer‐reviewed IITs where an influence (or potential influence) on clinical practice and/or policy were identified (maturity); iii) received a significant proportion of funding from Australian funders (local investment); and iv) were available to participate (feasibility) in this analysis.9 Three CTNs that had conducted a total of 25 IITs were included in the analysis: the Australasian Stroke Trials Network (ASTN), the Interdisciplinary Maternal Perinatal Australasian Collaborative Trials (IMPACT) Network, and the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Clinical Trials Group (ANZICS CTG). Gross economic benefits across these CTNs were almost $2 billion, with the majority due to improvements in patient health outcomes ($1.4 billion), and 30% due to avoided health service costs — $453 million from the difference in outcomes and $127 million from differences in service costs. Gross costs, which included the cost of running the CTN, coordinating centre costs and the cost of running the entire IIT program in each CTN, were about $335 million, with most of those costs being for the IIT program itself (accounting for 73% of total costs). The benefit to cost ratio was 5.8:1 if findings from the 25 IITs were implemented in 65% of the eligible Australian population for one year.9 Similar findings have been reported internationally, with studies in the United States reporting a benefit to cost ratio of 4.2:1 over 10 years.3 In the United Kingdom, randomised clinical trials funded under the National Institute for Health Research health technology assessment program were expected to have a net benefit of £3 billion, with just 12% of this benefit required to cover the costs for all research undertaken.10 In the Australian analysis, funding provided to run a portfolio of IITs did not cover the total costs within either a CTN or at an individual IIT level, and in‐kind support was relied upon to make up the shortfall. The NHMRC funding received by all Australasian CTNs between 2004 and 2014 was represented by just 9% of the $2 billion gross benefit.9 The magnitude of avoided health care costs appears large, reflecting the size of health care expenditure. The Australian analysis highlighted the importance of in‐kind support within CTNs not only to sustain the viability of the CTNs but for their ability to conduct individual IITs.9 The total quantum of site level, in‐kind support could not be quantified accurately during the study. However, this support was described as being finite, at capacity in many instances, and at risk of exhaustion. From a sustainability perspective, the reliance on in‐kind support is concerning, and undermines the timeliness, volume and international competitiveness of clinical research in Australasia. Anecdotal evidence from interviews suggested that site level in‐kind support represents up to a 50% increase in trial funding. Late‐phase IITs conducted by CTNs deliver better health outcomes and health service value through a variety of mechanisms. Importantly, IITs play a critical role in addressing clinically significant questions, influencing guidelines, and identifying ways to improve safety and quality and opportunities for more efficient resource use. As stated in a scoping review, IITs “can also yield a substantial knowledge return on investment for hospitals and institutions that actively engage in trials, including the following: more skilled clinicians and increased research capacity, improved patient outcomes, and better health system performance. Also, the difference in cost of care for trial and non‐trial patients can be negligible”.11 Large increases in the benefit to cost ratio could be realised through relatively small increases in implementation rates. Research to identify the barriers and enablers of trial implementation should allow IITs to be translated more effectively into frontline health care delivery. But, intuitively, the conduct of potentially practice‐changing IITs through CTNs is likely to enhance implementation rates, as these virtual, nationwide consortia of clinicians are likely to involve a majority of the relevant clinical community. Hence, the reasonable assumption that clinicians who participate in IITs are more likely to implement trial results in their own practice and to translate new knowledge to their clinical colleagues. What we do not yet know is the extent to which IITs translate into routine practice. This is rarely measured or monitored in Australia. Measures of implementation should be incorporated routinely into IIT design, particularly for randomised clinical trials that are arguably more likely to result in clinically significant and potentially practice‐changing findings. Notwithstanding the clear economic benefit demonstrated for the 25 trials conducted by the selected group of three CTNs, it might be possible to reduce trial costs further. The overall cost of trials is a complex, multilayered issue, particularly as small pilot studies are often required to demonstrate the feasibility of recruitment. But combined with the push to answer key questions more quickly especially for the seriously or critically ill patients, such considerations have been drivers in implementing newer adaptive trial designs, which have flexible sample sizes that might reasonably be expected to reduce clinical trial costs.12 The analysis conducted of the three selected CTNs represents the first such analysis conducted of the role of CTNs in the Australian health sector. Despite the limitations of the analysis, it is clear further investment in existing CTNs, as well as therapeutic areas for which there are no CTNs at present, is warranted. This needs to be done in a manner that seeks operational efficiencies, including consolidation of infrastructure and the means to ensure engagement with geographically dispersed health services to improve patient access to trials across communities.11 In conclusion, there is potentially enormous, and arguably untapped, value in investing in IITs conducted by CTNs, as they provide net benefits to health care systems. However, the exact return on investment is contingent on the level of implementation. Further work in this regard is warranted. So, where to from here? High quality health systems are reliant on a strong clinical trials sector. In particular, the role of IITs run by CTNs is paramount in order to address clinically important questions, especially those that relate to health care variation. Clinical trial infrastructure needs to be strengthened, and we must endeavour to reduce reliance on in‐kind funding to ensure that the sector remains viable. Finally, we must strive to maximise implementation of trial findings to optimise current investment in the sector. Box – A self‐improving, sustainable health care system
The joint ACTA/ACSQHC Working Group
Medical education
Pharmacovigilance for chlorhexidine anaphylaxis: a preventable adverse reaction
A 73-year-old man underwent a right total right knee replacement for osteoarthritis
Suran L Fernando · Marc J Capon · Sarah L Green · Michael J Boyle
Tracheal obstruction caused by pleomorphic adenoma
A 49-year-old woman presented with severe dyspnoea and respiratory distress
Huizhen Fan · Lei Yu
Cullen and Grey Turner signs in abdominal pain
A 46-year-old man with a history of chronic hepatitis B and alcohol misuse presented with acute abdominal pain
Yoen Young Chuah · Yeong Yeh Lee
Ethics and law
Ethical issues in reproductive genetic carrier screening
Publicly funded reproductive carrier screening programs must weigh up a number of ethical considerations Reproductive genetic carrier screening (RCS) is undertaken by individuals or couples to determine their likelihood of having a child with particular autosomal recessive or X‐linked genetic conditions. It can be undertaken by anyone of reproductive age who wishes to have it, regardless of their family history or ancestry, and either before or during pregnancy.1 Some forms of RCS are currently available in Australia on a user‐pays basis, costing around $400–$500 per person. It is usually accessed via general practitioners but can also be accessed directly from testing companies.2 People who receive an increased chance result are offered genetic counselling to explore their reproductive options, which might include steps to avoid having a child with a genetic condition. Taking the test before pregnancy gives those with an increased chance result a wider range of reproductive options compared with prenatal testing.3 The Australian Reproductive Genetic Carrier Screening Project (Mackenzie's Mission), announced by federal Health Minister Greg Hunt in 2018, is a research project offering RCS to 10 000 Australian couples. Recruitment via participating health professionals commenced in late 2019. Mackenzie's Mission is gathering evidence — including clinical, laboratory, psychosocial, health economic and ethical aspects — to inform how publicly funded screening could be operationalised in Australia within ten years.4 Here, we reflect on the ethical implications of RCS in Australian health care.5 While the issues raised apply to all types of RCS, we focus on aspects relating to large scale, publicly funded initiatives like Mackenzie's Mission. Ethics and the goals of RCS A central ethical issue for large scale RCS initiatives is how their goals are described. Two main foci for articulating the goals of such programs are (i) outcomes for individuals and their families, such as reproductive autonomy; and (ii) outcomes for populations, such as reduced incidence of certain genetic conditions. It has been argued that a goal of seeking to reduce the population incidence of babies who will develop severe genetic conditions is inappropriate for RCS.6 This line of reasoning draws partly on concerns about perceived coercion; when RCS is offered routinely, couples may perceive that participating is the right thing to do, even if testing is optional.7 Additionally, such a goal might be interpreted as implying that couples who receive an increased chance result are then obliged to take action to avoid the birth of an affected child. Any future national program must be delivered as a genuinely optional intervention, respecting couples’ values and preferences. It has also been argued that the goal of reducing the incidence of certain genetic conditions in the population expresses an unfavourable judgement about the value of the lives of people who currently live with such a condition.8 Therefore, in the case of RCS it is considered more ethically acceptable for a program's stated aim to be aligned with the first set of outcomes mentioned above; namely, to support couples’ reproductive autonomy through provision of relevant information to enable choices that are consistent with their values.1 RCS programs are also motivated, at least in part, by the desire to mitigate harms that couples who have parented a baby or child with a severe or fatal genetic condition experience. These harms include the grief of losing a child or witnessing one's child suffering. RCS might enable some parents to avoid such distressing experiences. Emphasising the severity of a condition included in a screening program arguably lessens any implied negative judgement about people living with genetic conditions screened for. However, ethical debate on what constitutes a severe or serious condition remains ongoing.9 Ethical aspects of gene selection A significant component of designing a publicly funded RCS program is determining which genes warrant inclusion for testing.10 Since screening can be stigmatising for people living with the genetic conditions screened for, it is considered most ethically defensible to screen only for genes associated with severe childhood‐onset conditions.1,3 However, because perceptions surrounding seriousness and severity are not purely objective,9 any RCS program must carefully weigh the diverse ways in which a condition can present, as well as the implications of that condition for the person and their family. There are also ethical aspects regarding the classification of gene variants identified during the testing process.11 There can be a degree of uncertainty as to how strongly a particular variant is associated with a genetic condition, an issue compounded in population screening because there is no index case (proband) to facilitate interpretation. This has ethical implications because reporting a variant as disease‐causing when it is not may mean a couple will experience additional uncertainty and perhaps go through unnecessary tests or interventions. On the other hand, not reporting a variant that does turn out to be disease‐causing means a couple may go on to have a child with a serious condition despite receiving a low chance result from RCS. This issue will remain important for some time, especially as variant databases are still developing. Consent for RCS: enabling meaningful choices Whether and how to gain consent can be contentious in many public health screening programs.12 While both consent and pre‐test education are important for RCS,1 determining how best to do this can be complex. It has been argued that when screening is perceived as routine, people will be less likely to reflect critically on whether it is appropriate for them, or to consider whether the results will be relevant to their decision making.7 Support for pre‐test decision making such as educational videos and decision aids can help couples consider the implications of an increased chance result and their options for reproduction. Mackenzie's Mission is one of several large scale population‐based RCS initiatives globally that have curated large panels of genes to test using a couple‐based model.5,10,13 It is important for participants to understand that RCS is designed to provide the couple with information that might help with decisions about reproduction, rather than to convey genetic risk information for their own health. Participants will also be encouraged and supported to reflect on their values and their goals for testing, to help them decide whether this screening will be useful or important for them.14 Reporting results: ethical implications Results of any genetic test can be complex and might be uncertain.15 As such, results from RCS need to be provided in a way that is meaningful and useful. To optimise the utility of their results, participants will require a basic understanding of key concepts such as what it means to carry a recessive genetic condition, and the implications of an increased chance finding. It is also important to ensure that participating in screening is not interpreted as guaranteeing that someone will have a healthy child. Publicly funded population RCS globally is tending towards reporting couple‐based findings. Evidence suggests that participants understand and accept this approach and that it is feasible as a population screening model.5,13,16 Mackenzie's Mission participants will be informed when they both carry the same disease‐causing variant for an autosomal recessive condition, or when the genetic mother is found to carry one of the X‐linked conditions screened for. Reporting only couple‐based findings is justifiable from an implementation perspective, for both programmatic and pragmatic reasons. Programmatically, RCS aims to inform reproductive choices, so it provides couples with information relevant to those choices. Any potential for false reassurance can be carefully addressed during the pre‐ and post‐test education processes. Pragmatically, publicly funded RCS would be prohibitively expensive to offer if it reported individual carrier results, as the majority of individuals screened are likely to be a carrier for something.16 Each of these people would then need individual follow‐up, despite their future offspring having a very low chance of actually having that autosomal recessive condition, even if they were to re‐partner.17 Moreover, this information has no clinical utility for the individual's own health. It also has the potential to provoke anxiety. As such, it is premature and potentially inequitable to provide individuals with information relating to their individual carrier status without providing further support. Further research will inform considerations of the ethical and psychosocial aspects of using an RCS framework to report individual results, including the possibility of offering individual results for a limited number of the more prevalent conditions on the panel. Public funding How RCS is funded is also ethically relevant, not least due to the perceived endorsement of screening by the state when a program is publicly funded. A formal, publicly funded, screening program may have advantages,18 but public funding might also carry tacit value implications. Experience with antenatal screening suggests that blame and guilt can be associated with declining an offer of screening.19 Funding models can also reinforce routinisation, where a screening offer might be perceived as encouraging or even coercing couples to terminate a pregnancy if a genetic condition is identified in the fetus.7 Within public funding structures, ethical issues also arise from the mode of offer of RCS, either in the context of a formal population screening program (likely to be delivered by centralised, publicly funded entities) or via a Medicare item number. Provision via Medicare will allow any provider who can meet the item number requirements to offer the test, and as such is likely to attract a greater commercial presence in RCS. The resulting fragmentation might constitute a lost opportunity for uniform evaluation of program effectiveness and might also give rise to inconsistencies in aspects of test provision, such as counselling. On the other hand, provision through Medicare may also enable RCS to be rolled out more quickly than establishing a formal population screening program. Cost‐effectiveness of population‐wide RCS has not yet been established conclusively by the existing evidence;11 however, one of the aims of Mackenzie's Mission is to generate such evidence for the Australian health care system. RCS and community values Underlying these ethical considerations is the question of how RCS reflects societal values. While most people are likely to agree on core principles such as respecting couples’ choices about whether to participate in screening, there will also be variations in preferences between communities, families and individuals.20 Future delivery of a national RCS program in Australia will need to recognise and respond to this diversity, while also upholding the values that motivate the program. The central values for RCS in Australia are good health outcomes for families and communities, alongside respect for all Australians, equity in program design and delivery, and reproductive autonomy.
Lisa Dive · Ainsley J Newson
Non‐invasive prenatal testing: clinical utility and ethical concerns about recent advances
Difficulty in achieving proper informed consent for a complex screening test and the varying phenotypic outcomes leaves pregnant women in a precarious situation when results are abnormal The combined first trimester screening test for Down syndrome, involving a nuchal translucency scan and biochemistry at 11–13 weeks, improved detection rates to 90% when compared with the sensitivity of screening by age‐related a priori risk of around 30% for a false positive rate of 5%.1 The advent of non‐invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) in 2010 as a screening test for the common trisomies was revolutionary, with sensitivity, specificity and detection rates unmatched by the combined first trimester screening programs. NIPT was found to achieve a detection rate for Down syndrome of 99.7%, with a false positive rate of 0.04%.2 However, some NIPT providers now additionally offer extended panels and low resolution whole genome sequencing (WGS) including sex chromosome aneuploidies, rare autosomal aneuploidies, and subchromosomal deletions, duplications and recurrent microdeletions. This comes at a cost of a higher false positive rate and lower positive predictive value.3 Moreover, the expanded panels and WGS NIPT raise issues of clinical utility and ethical concerns.4,5 Clinical utility Screening not diagnosis NIPT is based on the detection of cell‐free fetal DNA in the maternal circulation. The placental origin of cell‐free fetal DNA means that NIPT can only be a screening test and is not diagnostic.6 NIPT findings can be confounded by confined placental mosaicism, cell‐free fetal DNA from a demised co‐twin placenta, maternal chromosomal changes or malignancy.6,7 Moreover, a NIPT result will be issued even if the fetus is demised. The current NIPT tests available are for specific chromosomal aneuploidy, extended panels of targeted conditions and low resolution WGS. Targeted and low resolution WGS NIPT Targeted NIPTs (Box 1) interrogate specific chromosomes: standard (usually 13, 18, 21, X and Y) or extended (specific recurrent microdeletions associated with known syndromes, such as 22q11.2 microdeletion [DiGeorge syndrome]).8 Many abnormalities that can be detected by targeted NIPT have varying clinical outcomes (eg, sex chromosome abnormalities and DiGeorge syndrome). Each of these conditions has varying sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value. Other NIPTs interrogate every chromosome (by low resolution WGS). These tests can potentially screen for aneuploidy of every chromosome (all 22 autosomes and the sex chromosomes), and for subchromosomal gains and losses on every chromosome. There is potential utility in detecting rare or novel large subchromosomal imbalances, as they are likely to be associated with abnormal clinical phenotype when present in the fetus, and may indicate a familial balanced rearrangement. The clinical utility of screening for rare autosomal aneuploidies is less certain. Most rare autosomal aneuploidies (95%) are confined to the placenta, and those which are present in the fetus as well as the placenta often result in early fetal demise.9 The resolution of WGS NIPT is likely to increase as deeper sequencing becomes viable and cost‐effective. Whereas prenatal microarray testing of amniotic fluid in Australia is primarily used in the context of a fetal structural abnormality, higher resolution NIPT could become a general screening test. This would, however, increase both the number of variants of uncertain significance and the likelihood that they are detected in an apparently phenotypically normal fetus.3,10 Ethical concerns Respect for maternal autonomy is an important ethical principle in clinical guidelines for prenatal screening. Recommendation 2 of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists guidelines states: “Screening or diagnostic testing for fetal chromosomal and genetic conditions is voluntary and should only be undertaken as an informed decision by the pregnant woman”.11 In light of the issues surrounding clinical utility and complexity of expanded panels and WGS NIPT, care needs to be taken to ensure that autonomy is respected. Moreover, consent alone cannot be expected to do the ethical heavy lifting, because of (i) the challenges in providing adequate information arising from complexity of the tests; (ii) the risk of power imbalances and “normalisation” of testing; (iii) anxiety resulting from complex and potentially unnecessary medical decisions; (iv) the problem of screening for “normality” and genetic reductionism; and (v) the doctor’s responsibility in determining which NIPT test is clinically indicated. Complexity endangers informed consent Respect for autonomy requires that informed consent is obtained. From a medico‐legal perspective, consent must be given voluntarily. The individual must also be sufficiently informed regarding a test or procedure, including the associated risks and benefits. The requisite extent of information provision is generally determined in accordance with what information a reasonable person, in that person’s circumstances, would expect to receive. From an ethical perspective, however, it is the understanding of information that is important, not merely that a person was given the legally required information. Given the complexity of extended panels and WGS NIPT, ensuring understanding means that significant time needs to be invested. Power imbalances and normalisation Two additional factors could ethically undermine consent for all NIPT options. First, the power imbalance between a doctor and patient, whereby a patient simply agrees because “doctor knows best” and, second, the impression that NIPT is a normal part of care that it would be foolish to reject.12 The anxiety caused by uncertain results It is tempting to respect autonomy by being non‐paternalistic and non‐directive in counselling by giving parents all the information from prenatal testing regardless of its nature. However, this shifts the burden of the uncertain results and the resultant anxiety to the parents. Qualitative and quantitative research shows higher levels of decisional regret among parents whose results identified variation of uncertain significance. At least some parents would not have consented to the test if they had known what this would entail. The lack of certainty by clinicians about what these results might actually mean for a future child increased parental distress.13 The meaning of screening and the danger of genetic reductionism According to the synthesis of screening criteria offered by Andermann and colleagues (Box 2), screening should be used to identify an individual who is high risk for a specific disease or need, thereby filling the perceived gap between standard screening and invasive diagnostics.14 Screening is then followed up with diagnostic tests and appropriate treatment. The availability of extended panels and WGS NIPT (Box 1) increases the tendency away from screening for diseases guided by public health screening principles. It is difficult to identify a recognised need or define the objectives of the screening beyond merely looking to see if there is anything abnormal. Even if these principles were met, one may be detecting placental pathology, or clinical conditions with highly variable outcomes for the fetus. As the resolution of WGS NIPT increases, so does the likelihood of detecting variants of uncertain significance. Provision of extended panels and WGS NIPT should be seen in light of the bigger question of how we see genetic information in our society.15 Research shows that many genetic tests are in effect screening for “normality”, which partly explains the anxiety when variants of uncertain significance are reported.13 This approach potentially changes the purpose of screening from screening for a specific disease to screening for normality by identifying any abnormality in the genome. The error in this thinking is that it assumes that genetic variation is abnormal. Just because a genetic anomaly can be identified does not necessarily mean that it would be phenotypically expressed. Similarly, detection of genes associated with adult onset disease does not necessarily equate to disease, and the possible future development of therapies for currently untreatable conditions cannot be ruled out. Consent is not sufficient to justify a procedure of questionable clinical utility Screening should be recommended or chosen only if there is likely to be a proportionate benefit, and there is no disproportionate burden. What is proportionate rests on a number of objective and subjective factors, but the aforementioned public health screening principles provide a good starting point. We agree with national guidelines that recommend against routine screening for recurrent microdeletions, and recommend provision of in‐depth counselling before screening for sex chromosome abnormalities.11 Recommendations The following recommendations may address the clinical and ethical concerns outlined above. Informed consent is required for all NIPT tests, especially in the context of extended panels and WGS NIPT. Clinicians must understand the different abnormalities targeted by extended NIPT panels and be able to assess and communicate the clinical utility of screening in accordance with a particular patient’s needs, desires and circumstances (Box 1). If ordering WGS NIPT, given that there may be significant uncertainty as to the actual phenotypic or functional manifestation of a genetic variation in a particular child, the consent process should include helping to contextualise limitations and risks in the broader context of the human experience of risk and uncertainty. Genuine shared decision‐making models can empower patient autonomy by helping them to understand the implications of their possible decisions in relation to their values.16 Moreover, decision tools and algorithms that align a variety of scenarios with personal values can facilitate a high quality informed consent process. Higher resolution WGS NIPT should only be used for research purposes until we have robust data regarding its clinical utility. Box 1 – Non‐invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) options: current availability and main advantages and disadvantages CPM = confined placental mosaicism; PPV = positive predictive value; WGS = whole genome sequencing. Box 2 – Synthesis of screening criteria12 The screening program should respond to a recognised need. The objectives of screening should be defined at the outset. There should be a defined target population. There should be scientific evidence of screening program effectiveness. The program should integrate education, testing, clinical services and program management. There should be quality assurance, with mechanisms to minimise potential risks of screening. The program should ensure informed choice, confidentiality and respect for autonomy. The program should promote equity and access to screening for the entire target population. Program evaluation should be planned from the outset. The overall benefits of screening should outweigh the harm.
Joseph Thomas · James Harraway · David Kirchhoffer
Editorial
POEM for achalasia: Looking good, but the final verses are yet to be penned
Choice of therapy will be determined by the compromises and uncertainties most acceptable for the patient and their clinician
Ian JS Cook
Research
A prospective multicentre study of per‐oral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) for achalasia in Australia
Objective: To describe the clinical and procedural outcomes of per‐oral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) for achalasia in Australia. Design, setting: Prospective observational study in three Australian tertiary referral centres, 5 May 2014 – 27 October 2019 (66 months). Participants: Patients who had undergone POEM for achalasia. Major outcome measures: Eckardt scores calculated prior to POEM and six months, one year, and two years after POEM. The primary outcome was clinical success, defined as an Eckardt score of 3 or less without a second intervention. Results: 142 patients underwent POEM for achalasia; their mean age was 52 years (SD, 18 years), 83 were men (58%), and the median length of hospital stay two days (IQR, 1–3 days). Their mean Eckardt score before POEM was 8.0 (SD, 2.4) and 1.1 (SD, 1.6) six months after POEM; it did not change significantly between six months and two years after POEM (mean monthly increase, 0.014 points; 95% CI, –0.001 to 0.029). A total of 127 patients (89%) improved clinically after POEM. Intra‐procedural capnoperitoneum was the only risk factor associated with treatment failure (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.85; 95% CI, 1.08–7.51). Previous treatments — botulinum toxin injection (25 patients, 18%), endoscopic balloon dilatation (69, 49%), and Heller myotomy (14, 10%) — did not affect POEM outcomes. Five patients (4%) experienced major adverse events, including pneumonia, oesophageal leak, empyema and melaena, that were managed during admission and without sequelae. Conclusions: POEM is an effective treatment for achalasia. Significant reductions in Eckardt scores achieved by six months are sustained at two years. POEM can be both a first line definitive therapy and a salvage therapy for patients not helped by other treatments.
Sunil Gupta · Mayenaaz Sidhu · Xuan Banh · Joseph Bradbear · Karen Byth · Luke F Hourigan · Spiro Raftopoulos · Michael J Bourke
Seroprevalence of SARS‐CoV‐2‐specific antibodies in Sydney after the first epidemic wave of 2020
Early control of transmission was successful, but efforts to reduce further transmission remain important
Heather F Gidding · Dorothy A Machalek · Alexandra J Hendry · Helen E Quinn · Kaitlyn Vette · Frank H Beard · Hannah S Shilling · Rena Hirani · Iain B Gosbell · David O Irving · Linda Hueston · Marnie Downes · John B Carlin · Matthew VN O'Sullivan · Dominic E Dwyer · John M Kaldor · Kristine Macartney
Research letter
Colorectal cancer surgery in rural Australia can match outcomes in metropolitan hospitals: a 14‐year study
The incidence of colorectal cancer in Australia is among the highest in the world.1 About 29% of Australians live in rural or remote areas. We have previously reported that colorectal cancer surgery in rural hospitals is safe and that short term outcomes are good.2 This report is based on prospectively collected data for 311 patients treated for stages 1 to 3 colorectal cancer by four surgeons in rural South Australia (Mount Gambier Hospital, with 110 beds and a six‐bed high dependency unit) during 1 February 2006 – 31 January 2020. The follow‐up parameters, intervals between follow‐up examinations, and data analysis tools have been reported previously.2 Briefly, data were analysed in SigmaStat 3.5 (Systat). Survival was analysed by single‐group and log‐rank testing; survival differences between groups were assessed by pairwise multiple comparison (Holm–Šídák). Group data were compared in t, rank sum, and χ2 tests; correlations of covariates and cancer‐specific survival were assessed by multiple logistic regression. The Central Adelaide Local Health Network Human Research Ethics Committee approved our study (reference, 12041). One hundred of 311 patients (32%) had Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) stage 1, 110 (35%) stage 2, and 101 (33%) stage 3 colorectal cancer. The median age of the patients was 71 years (interquartile range [IQR], 63–78 years); 172 (55%) were men. Of the 311 procedures, 277 were elective (89%); 113 were laparoscopic (36%) and 198 laparotomies (64%). Median hospital length of stay was 7 days (IQR, 4–10 days); 30‐day mortality was 1.3% (four deaths), 90‐day mortality 1.6% (five deaths). The proportion of deaths at 30 days after emergency colorectal cancer surgery (three of 34 patients, 9%) was significantly greater than following elective surgery (one of 277, 0.4%; P = 0.002). Leakage occurred in 13 of 259 procedures with anastomosis (5%). The median number of lymph nodes resected was 14 (IQR, 10–20). Overall 5‐year survival of patients (stages 1–3) was 79%, 10‐year survival was 45%. Cancer‐specific 5‐year survival was 86% and 10‐year survival 79% (Box). Multivariate analysis included patient sex, age, intra‐operative blood loss, laparoscopic surgery, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, and UICC stage as covariates. More advanced tumour stage (stages 1/2 v stage 3: odds ratio [OR], 2.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39–2.90) and higher age (< 70 years v ≥ 70 years: OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.11–4.71) were significantly associated with lower overall survival. Cancer‐specific survival was significantly reduced by more advanced tumour stage stages 1/2 v stage 3: OR, 4.76; 95% CI, 2.53–8.94). Our follow‐up program included quarterly blood tests (carcino‐embryogenic antigen, carbohydrate antigen 19.9, full blood cell count) and clinical examination during the first two years, semi‐annual tests during the next three years, and annual blood tests and clinical examinations thereafter. Throughout follow‐up, annual computed tomography and colonoscopy were offered to all patients, and additional investigations initiated in response to changes in clinical or laboratory findings. This intense follow‐up program, based on that used at the University of Munich in Germany, was adopted when the current surgical unit was established in Mount Gambier. It is being reviewed and will be adjusted to current Australian recommendations. Recurrent disease was detected in a total of 52 patients (17%), and 13 patients (4%) underwent curative resection. The primary treatment for colorectal cancer is surgical removal. Surgical care should be provided in an adequately staffed and equipped hospital. We found that such surgery can be provided safely and with good long term oncological outcomes in a rural centre. Overall 5‐year survival in our study exceeded the most recent reported value for Australia (2011–2015: 69.9%),3 and contrasts with a Californian study which found that rural residence was associated with poorer cancer‐specific mortality.4 Published data on outcomes beyond 10 years after colorectal cancer surgery are limited. Our overall 10‐year survival rate of 45% is similar to that reported by an earlier study in Fremantle (44%).5 Our findings confirm that tumour stage and age at diagnosis are significant predictors of death following curative surgery for colorectal cancer. We found that colorectal cancer surgery in a non‐metropolitan surgical centre is safe and associated with low 30‐ and 90‐day mortality rates. Oncological results at 5 and 10 years compare well with the results of other groups. Surgery can be provided close to the patients’ homes and families in adequately staffed and equipped centres and can match outcomes in capital city hospitals. Box – Five‐ and 10‐year survival of patients undergoing curative resection for colorectal cancer at Mount Gambier Hospital, February 2006 – January 2020 5‐year survival 10‐year survival Overall Cancer‐specific Overall Cancer‐specific All 79% 86% 45% 79% Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) stage Stage 1 (pT1/pT2) 91% 99% 58% 99% Stage 2 (pT3/pT4) 82% 87% 51% 85% Stage 3 (any T, node positive) 55% 74% 39% 55% American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification 1 100% — 100% — 2 84% — 58% — 3 70% — 32% — 4 62% — 0 — Age < 70 years 86% — 72% — 70–79 years 76% — 32% — ≥ 80 years 60% — 7% — pT = primary tumour staging. table#t1 tbody td:nth-child(n+2) P. Pleft { text-align: center; }
Matthias W Wichmann · Timothy K McCullough · Eben Beukes · Thomas Gunning · Guy J Maddern
Letters
COVID‐19, children and schools: overlooked and at risk
To the Editor: The recent article by Hyde1 synthesised the evidence on the role of children (and schools) in the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2). Hyde concluded that the original perceptions that children do not play a role in transmission are unfounded. Current evidence shows that schools carry a risk of transmission that is dependent on the level of community transmission. Hyde emphasised the urgent need for risk‐reduction measures and advanced the Harvard guidelines for schools.2 We agree with Hyde and suggest that health and education authorities urgently implement risk‐reduction measures in schools. The Harvard guidelines put forth are comprehensive,2 but they need to be taken a step further to include an engaging health education campaign to allay fears and misconceptions and ensure behaviour change. Such messaging around coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) specifically targeting children has been similarly overlooked to date, and while some children’s books are coming out,3 there are limited age‐specific and engaging health education materials currently available and being systematically implemented in schools. An entertainment education approach can provide a highly effective forum for health education interventions targeting schoolchildren, and we consider this tactic should be applied to COVID‐19.4 An example is the cartoon video The Magic Glasses, which has proved successful in preventing intestinal worm infections in children.5 The cartoon enables children to identify with characters and visualise the intestinal parasitic worms and their eggs in people and the environment to reinforce the importance of good hygiene and associated health behaviour.4,5 This is directly applicable to the transmission dynamics of SARS‐CoV‐2 — whereby the virus would be visualised in people and the environment (Box) — and the associated messages for prevention. Key messages of such an intervention (The Magic Glasses: COVID‐19) could include hand washing, care in coughing and sneezing, tissue use and disposal, physical distancing, mask wearing, and what to do when feeling unwell. Health education and promotion are important components of disease prevention, but during disease outbreaks and health emergencies, they play an even more crucial role in an active response by providing a well established method to communicate and engage quickly and effectively with the public and prevent infections. This concept is especially important in the absence of an effective drug, and while it is highly encouraging that several safe and efficacious vaccines against SARS‐CoV‐2 have been developed and are being administered in a number of countries, a few caveats need to be considered: i) they have not been tested in children; ii) their impact on transmission is yet to be realised; and iii) there will be some time before they are rolled out globally.6 Messaging specifically targeting children, who may well be acting as silent transmitters of the virus, is presently lacking. A video or cartoon‐based entertainment education intervention would fill this need and suitably complement the other preventive measures advocated by Hyde.1 With the current debate around school closure and opening, having these preventive interventions in place would help mitigate the COVID‐19 risk and provide greater confidence to authorities and parents alike for re‐opening schools. Box – Cartoon concept — The Magic Glasses: COVID‐19
Darren J Gray · Gail M Williams · Donald P McManus
COVID‐19, children and schools: overlooked and at risk
To the Editor: We read with interest the opinion piece from Hyde1 regarding school opening during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic. We have closely followed the international literature about severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) transmission dynamics in children (aged 0–18 years).2 Evidence‐informed discussion about school attendance in the context of COVID‐19 is a high priority and this complex subject requires weighted expert review of the literature to accurately inform policy. As paediatricians and infectious diseases specialists, we wish to highlight important considerations when interpreting the available data. Schools (closures as well as mitigation measures) have been a major part of the collective discourse in 2020, and to suggest they have been overlooked is erroneous. School closures were one of the earliest non‐pharmaceutical interventions employed globally, leaving 1.6 billion children3 without the educational and social benefits they provide. Interest is intense among scientific and mass media in any potentially relevant data, with many studies ongoing. Interpretation of these studies requires understanding about differences between young children, adolescents and younger adults, as the evidence now suggests significantly lower risks of infection, severe disease and transmission for those aged under 10 years. The evidence from multiple household contact tracing studies which are unaffected by school closures demonstrate significantly lower secondary attack rates in younger children than in adults.4 This information has important implications in informing transmission risk. Prior experience from influenza pandemics left many with strong beliefs regarding children’s role in propagating community transmission, although evidence to date does not bear this out for SARS‐CoV‐2. Both direct and indirect evidence exist of a cursory role of younger children, which, although contrary to influenza, was similar for SARS and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS).5 While this report highlights health risks to children, data so far suggest the opposite: England had four deaths in children aged under 15 years by 3 May 2020,6 compared with around 20 deaths from seasonal influenza annually in the same age group. The discussion on schools is complex, demanding nuanced and balanced scientific and media coverage that considers not only epidemiological questions but also public health, educational, developmental, wellbeing, and social equity concerns.3,7 Any contribution must be weighed against the immense long term costs of school closures, especially for younger children and the disadvantaged.
Alasdair Munro · Asha C Bowen · Muge Cevik
COVID‐19, children and schools: overlooked and at risk
To the Editor: We are writing to express our concern regarding the Perspective by Hyde.1 This is twofold: firstly, the title and related content are misleading and alarmist, especially in the Australian context; secondly, the publication process and outcome falls short of what we expect of The Medical Journal of Australia. Dr Hyde suggests that the risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) in children and schools has been overlooked. This assertion is in the title, in the concluding sentence, and is implied throughout the article. This is demonstrably not true: Australian paediatricians and public health experts have actively contributed to world‐leading research into COVID‐19 and schools through early implementation and assessment of school‐based mitigation strategies,2,3 surveillance, and generation of policy‐relevant data. Three reports4,5,6 and a peer‐reviewed publication3 have been generated from the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance commissioned by New South Wales Health, showing minimal transmission, as well as a review7 undertaken by the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute commissioned by the Victorian government. Importantly, this locally generated evidence and associated considered health and education policy guidance regarding COVID‐19 acknowledge the profound and inequitable impact that school closures have on children’s learning and on child and family wellbeing, a matter that Hyde gives only limited consideration. Further, we point to a recently published expert systematic review8 that, in contrast to Hyde’s Perspective, shows compelling evidence that children are less likely than adults to acquire COVID‐19 and are potentially less likely to transmit it. The corresponding editorial reinforces the importance of using an evidence‐based approach.9 To our second concern, we question the need to publish and promote this article as a preprint in the first place, given that the benefit of preprint databases in biomedical sciences is the early, equitable and widespread distribution of research results not opinions.10 It is possible that the MJA’s promotion of this Perspective has contributed to unscientific populism surrounding COVID‐19, children and schools. Parents and the wider community should be reassured that schools in Australia are being monitored closely and that educators and policy makers are extensively involved as stakeholders.
Philip N Britton · Archana Koirala · Nicholas Wood · Kristine Macartney
COVID‐19, children and schools: overlooked and at risk
To the Editor: The recent MJA article by Hyde1 presents aspects of the debate regarding children’s transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) and school outbreaks. While we acknowledge this debate, Hyde’s article omits key research on the topic; importantly and specifically, the harms to children with school closures. We highlight some of the facts that Hyde’s Perspective did not cover. A systematic review concluded that children aged under 10 years were less susceptible to infection with SARS‐CoV‐2 compared with adolescents and adults.2 In addition, Victorian data show that children aged under 12 years are less likely to transmit the virus in school or childcare settings compared with adolescents and adults.3 Hyde’s assertion that age‐related differences remain in question is not borne out in the literature. Evidence suggests that schools are not sites of heightened transmission risk, but rather reflect community transmission. The data from France4 referenced in Hyde’s article do not account for confounding associated with increased movement by adults when children return to school. In Victoria, schools were closed not because they were deemed high risk, but to minimise the movement of people, especially adults.5 Asymptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) is not uncommon in children; however, contrary to Hyde’s claim, this does not mean that case detection is difficult or that children contribute disproportionately to transmission. In the scenario presented by Hyde, one would expect outbreaks at schools to be disproportionate to community transmission, but local and international data show that the opposite is true.3,6 As parts of Europe enter lockdown, health authorities, including the World Health Organization and UNICEF, have supported schools staying open.7,8 For some children, school is the safest place. The wide‐ranging indirect psychosocial and educational effects of lockdowns have been reported9 and have been observed by Victorian teachers and paediatricians; however, this is not discussed in Hyde’s article. To future‐proof the harm to children from school closures, a multidisciplinary team must develop a COVID‐19‐safe school policy. Our team of paediatricians and infectious disease epidemiologists developed a return to school guidance for the safe return to school for children in Victoria which can be scaled up and down depending on the level of community transmission.3 We are concerned that this Perspective may fuel parental anxiety, and we believe that its lack of rigour should question its place in the MJA.
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Jessica Howell · James S Ward · Jane Davies · Paul J Clark · Joshua S Davis
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Darier sign in mastocytoma
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Full list of Australia Day Honours
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Kirsty L Buising · Deborah Williamson · Benjamin C Cowie · Jennifer MacLachlan · Elizabeth Orr · Christopher MacIsaac · Eloise Williams · Katherine Bond · Stephen Muhi · James McCarthy · Andrea B Maier · Louis Irving · Denise Heinjus · Cate Kelly · Caroline Marshall
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Benjamin C Riordan · Daniel T Winter · Paul S Haber · Carolyn A Day · Kirsten C Morley
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Shelley Farrent · Brian Coppin · Scott Morris