Volume 224 - Issue 6
Predictors of Ambulance Transport to Hospital for Older People Living in Tasmanian Aged Care Facilities: A Retrospective Cohort Study
Authors: Sharon Andrews, Pieter F. Fouche, Belinda Flanagan, Michael McDermott, Melanie Greenwood
Correspondence: sharon.andrews@utas.edu.au
Med J Aust 2026 || doi: 10.5694/mja2.70211
Published online: 1 June 2026
Published online: 1 June 2026
Abstract
Objectives
To quantify factors associated with paramedic transport to hospital for older people in residential aged care facilities (RACFs) and supported accommodation, and to identify modifiable drivers of non-transport.
Study Type
Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected electronic patient care records, analysed with gradient boosting models and multivariable logistic regression.
Setting
Ambulance Tasmania attendances to RACFs and supported accommodation across Tasmania, 1January 2018 to 31 December 2024.
Study Population
All eligible ambulance attendances for people aged 65years or older at these facilities.
Main Outcome Measures
The primary outcome was transport to hospital. Scene time and clinical status at first assessment, summarised using the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and Shock Index, were descriptive variables and candidate predictors.
Results
Of 23,317 attendances, 19,386 (83.1%) resulted in transport and 3931 (16.9%) did not. Most attendances were low risk. Crew skill set, calendar month, initial pain score, respiratory rate and NEWS2 category were the strongest predictors of transport. In adjusted logistic regression, extended care paramedic attendance was associated with markedly lower odds of transport than attendance by standard paramedic crews (adjusted odds ratio, 0.09 [95% CI, 0.07–0.12]), corresponding to an adjusted transport probability of 0.50 compared with 0.85 for intensive care paramedic crews, 0.86 for standard paramedic crews and 0.69 for other crews.
Conclusions
Paramedic transport decisions for RACF residents were strongly associated with acute illness severity, but crew skill set was also independently associated with transport. Attendances managed by extended care paramedics had lower adjusted probabilities of hospital transport. These findings suggest that extended-scope paramedic models warrant prospective evaluation in this setting.