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Estimating the lifetime risks of cancer: the best measure depends on your purpose

Elizabeth Buckley and David M Roder
Med J Aust 2020; 212 (1): . || doi: 10.5694/mja2.50444
Published online: 13 January 2020

Estimates adjusted for competing risks of mortality can be more meaningful, but make some comparisons more difficult

The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare began collecting cancer incidence statistics at the population level during the mid‐1980s, based on state and territory registry data that are now collated by the Australian Cancer Database, supplemented by mortality data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.1 These data inform Australian policy makers, researchers, and the general public about cancer profiles and trends.1


  • Cancer Research Institute, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA


Correspondence: david.roder@unisa.edu.au

Acknowledgements: 

This editorial was prepared with the financial support of the Cancer Council SA Beat Cancer Project on behalf of its donors and SA Health.

Competing interests:

David Roder receives funding from the Cancer Council SA Beat Cancer Project for his position as Cancer Research Chair at the University of South Australia.

  • 1. Jelfs P, Coates M, Giles G, et al. Cancer in Australia 1989–1990 (with projections to 1995) (AIHW 32). Canberra: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 1996.
  • 2. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Australian Cancer Database, 2014; quality statement. Dec 2017. https://meteor.aihw.gov.au/content/index.phtml/itemId/687104 (viewed Oct 2019).
  • 3. Bray F, Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, et al. Global cancer statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin 2018; 68: 394–424.
  • 4. Koller MT, Raatz H, Steyerberg EW, Wolbers M. Competing risks and the clinical community: irrelevance or ignorance? Stat Med 2012; 31: 1089–1097.
  • 5. Bach AC, Lo KSE, Pathirana T, et al. Is the risk of cancer in Australia overstated? The importance of competing mortality for estimating lifetime risk. Med J Aust 2020; 212: 17–22.
  • 6. Sasieni PD, Shelton J, Ormiston‐Smith N, et al. What is the lifetime risk of developing cancer?: the effect of adjusting for multiple primaries. Br J Cancer 2011; 105: 460–465.

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