Suicide risk assessment: where are we now?

Christopher J Ryan and Matthew M Large
Med J Aust 2013; 198 (9): . || doi: 10.5694/mja13.10437
Published online: 20 May 2013

A definitive way to identify patients who will suicide remains elusive

Patients who present in psychological crisis or after a suicide attempt are more than 50 times more likely than the general population to die by suicide in the following year.1,2 They require careful assessment and management. Numerous publications suggest, and some health department policies insist, that such patients should undergo a “comprehensive suicide risk assessment” in addition to a standard clinical assessment.3,4 Although most guidelines warn that suicide risk assessment does not substitute for clinical judgement, almost all also include long lists of patient characteristics that are claimed to enable identification of those patients at high risk of suicide. These lists are often fashioned into ad-hoc scales that purportedly stratify patients into categories of low, medium and high risk. However, it is simply not possible to predict suicide in an individual patient, and any attempt to subdivide patients into high-risk and low-risk categories is at best unhelpful and at worst will prevent provision of useful and needed psychiatric care. Here, we explain why this is so and outline what we believe clinicians should do instead.

  • Christopher J Ryan1
  • Matthew M Large2

  • 1 Discipline of Psychiatry and the Centre for Values, Ethics and the Law in Medicine, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW.
  • 2 School of Psychiatry, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW.

Competing interests:

Matthew Large has received speaker fees from AstraZeneca.


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