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Looking Forward
Medicare: diagnosis and prognosis
Frances C Cunningham
MJA 2000; 173: 52-55
The system of mixed public-private healthcare funding works well in
Australia and offers the best foundation for the future
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Australians have now experienced 16 years of national health
insurance with Medicare, although the program implemented in 1984
was largely a renamed version of its predecessor, Medibank,
introduced 25 years ago. How will the healthcare industry and its
external environment change over the next 25 years, and what will be
the impact on Medicare? How should we best appraise Medicare's
strengths and weaknesses, take account of the fundamental changes
that have occurred in healthcare delivery, and apply the better
intelligence we now have on financial incentives and delivery
mechanisms to develop a more effective national health insurance
program for the future?
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Appraising Medicare | |
How do Australians view Medicare? In a 1998 survey conducted to
measure public satisfaction with healthcare, only 19% of
Australians agreed that, on the whole, the system works well and only
minor changes are needed to make it better.1 Forty-nine per cent wanted
fundamental changes, and waiting times for specialist care and
non-emergency surgery was reported as the most important consumer
issue. The survey also revealed a substantial loss of public
confidence in the healthcare system compared with a decade earlier,
when 34% of Australians felt that the system needed only minor
changes.
On the plus side, Medicare has established affordable universal
coverage for publicly funded, public hospital services and largely
publicly funded, privately provided medical and optometrical
services. Australians also have excellent coverage for mainstream
pharmaceuticals. With a view to controlling health expenditure, at
present at $50 billion and 8.4% of gross domestic product
(GDP),2 these services were seen by
government as the boundaries of publicly funded Medicare. While our
health expenditure is at the median for OECD countries, our life
expectancy is above the average.
Weaknesses in the Medicare public program are evident: universal
coverage only includes medical practitioners and optometrists, and
the provision of other publicly funded ancillary services and
community health services varies substantially within the various
State or Territory health systems.
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Medicare's financial incentives | |
A valid concern with implementing a national health insurance
program is that it tends to lock in place the existing healthcare
system. In Australia, this has meant the maintenance of the
open-ended, traditional fee-for-service approach to financing
medical and optometrical services, with little change in the
delivery system structure. There are increasing concerns about the
geographic maldistribution of medical services, especially in
rural areas. With an administered pricing system, it is difficult to
get the prices "right", especially with the rapid technological
changes affecting healthcare. Moreover, the structure of such
systems can have powerful effects (some intended and undesirable) on
services delivered. For example, payment of general practitioners
under Medicare has created incentives for shorter patient visits and
higher patient throughput.
In addition, preventive services -- health screening and disease
management programs, and patient education and health outcomes
monitoring -- tend not to be as effectively implemented in
non-managed systems as in managed systems. Although trials of
coordinated care have been implemented in Australia in recent years,
they have been primarily public-sector oriented, whereas the major
overseas examples of long-term, financially viable care
management systems are in the private domain. In the United States, in
addition to the coverage that private sector managed health
insurance firms provide for those with private insurance, the
government has contracted extensively with these health insurers to
provide care to beneficiaries in government programs as an
alternative to traditional coverage.
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Split responsibilities and inefficiencies | |
Medicare creates a separation of payment of most ambulatory medical
care from inpatient care, with non-hospital medical services and
pharmaceutical services funded by the Commonwealth, and hospital
and day-surgery services funded through the States and through
private health insurance. This means that there are major structural
impediments to the provision of a "seamless" web of services through
all levels of care. This separation of payment has also made it
difficult to move away from an emphasis on inpatient care and the
resultant high levels of hospital utilisation. In 1997-98, overall
Australian hospital utilisation was 1075 bed-days per thousand
population (excluding same-day admissions).3 This compares
with the 1996-97 rates of 318 and 335 days per 1000 population in the
United States for health maintenance organisations (HMOs) and
non-HMOs, respectively.4 The 1997-98 Australian
hospital admission rate (excluding same-day admissions) of
16%3
was almost three times the 1996 US health insurance rate of 5.7% (for
both managed care and non-managed care).5 In the United States, this
reduction in acute inpatient care has been accompanied by an increase
in subacute, home health and skilled nursing facility care. This has
not happened in Australia, with the result that we have excess
hospital bed capacity in both the public and private sectors.
An important general caveat about measuring service use is that the
assumption "more is better" does not necessarily hold true in
healthcare consumption. It is inappropriate to assume that more care
-- or more costly care -- is better, or that reductions in service use
necessarily indicate reductions in quality.
Hospital utilisation in Australia thus presents a conundrum: in
spite of having such high levels (by international comparisons) of
inpatient admissions and bed-day utilisation, as well as excess bed
capacity, there are significant problems with public-hospital
waiting lists. The solution lies in better care management and in
appropriate care at the appropriate level, rather than in funding for
additional beds.
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Reform of private health insurance | |
Although 10% of total health expenditure is funded through private
health insurance,2 the role of private health
insurance within Australia's healthcare system has not been clearly
delineated. Is private health insurance a supplement to or an
alternative to the public health system?
Initial estimates of the cost of Medicare assumed that at least 40% of
Australians would maintain their private health insurance
cover.6 Levels of private cover
declined from 60% immediately pre-Medicare in 1983 to 30.1% in
1998.7
The legislative changes introduced in 1995 were
intended to make insurance better value for money through agreements
made between health insurers and hospitals and health insurers and
medical practitioners. These changes have resulted in more
effective negotiations between insurers and private hospitals.
Since coming into power in 1996, the Howard Liberal-National
Coalition Government has made significant progress in modernising
the regulation of private health insurance. Within a short
timeframe, most of the key recommendations of the 1997 Industry
Commission Inquiry8 into private health
insurance have been introduced, with the exception of the
recommendation for a broad public inquiry into Australia's health
system.
Australians value choice, whether it be in education, airlines or
healthcare. Australians also value a fair go. The Howard Government
has introduced strategies to ensure that we maintain a viable mixed
private and public healthcare system in Australia. Compared with the
financial contribution of those relying totally on the public
system, the contribution of privately insured Australians was
inequitable. The 30% tax rebate on health insurance premiums for
consumers is one part of an overall strategy to ensure the
continuation of a mixed public and private health system in
Australia. There is bipartisan support for the rebate, with the
Leader of the Opposition, Kim Beazley, promising its retention by a
Labor Government.9
The rebate ensures that there is a fairer, more equitable approach to
financing healthcare for those who choose to pay for private cover, in
addition to their Medicare levy payments and their contributions
through taxable income (estimates for which range from 5% to 10%). The
Private Health Insurance Administration Council reports that a
record 187 000 Australians have joined health funds in the first three
months of this year, with the fastest-growing membership being in the
age bracket 30-34 years.7 This means that more than six
million Australians now have health insurance, the highest level
since 1996.
There has also been stronger growth in no-gap cover for
hospital-related medical costs, after the Harradine* amendment.
The latter requires health insurers to have no-gap products in place
by 1 July 2000 in order to offer the 30% rebate to their members. The
legislation, just passed by Federal Parliament (the Health
Legislation Amendment (Gap Cover Schemes) Act 2000), will allow
the private health industry to develop "no gap" or "known gap" schemes
which will operate without the need for contracts. The introduction
of Lifetime Health Cover on 1 July 2000 is currently resulting in
continued growth in private health insurance membership. Major
changes relating to the capital adequacy and solvency requirements
of health insurers are to be introduced shortly to provide more
clearly defined safeguards for consumers.
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Major impacts over the next 25 years | |
The fundamental challenge for Medicare, with its financing and
delivery systems belonging to the last century, will be coping with
the impact of key trends envisaged for 2025. Most of these trends will
affect the future costs of Medicare. The health insurance system of
the future will also be shaped by the wider sociopolitical, moral and
ethical environment, in terms of what is politically feasible and
acceptable to the electorate. In particular, what will be the
trade-off between the extent of public coverage and the tax burden?
Also relevant will be our capacity to reduce behavioural risk factors
across societal groups to achieve reductions in morbidity and
increases in life expectancy. The magnitude of the contribution of
the behavioural risk factors to the disease burden in Australia has
recently been estimated, with tobacco smoking causing an estimated
10% of the disease burden in Australia, followed by physical
inactivity (7%).10
The Internet, electronic commerce and information technology
The Medicare system will be strongly affected by information
technology and the Internet. At present, a depressingly large
fraction of healthcare processes are still mediated by paper
(medical records, prescriptions, appointments, bills and claims).
According to Goldsmith,11 an eminent US healthcare
forecaster and strategist, what the Internet promises healthcare
managers and clinicians is a flexible information architecture that
can reach down into the dozens, even hundreds, of healthcare
information "silos" and extract, analyse, aggregate and redirect
the data clinicians or managers require to make decisions.
E-commerce also promises to reduce administration costs.
Beyond clinical uses, promising Internet applications in
healthcare include:
- Paperless transmission,
assessment and payment of medical and hospital claims;
- Paperless prescribing of and payment for pharmaceutical items;
- Medical product ordering and inventory management;
- Outsourcing of data processing and other management functions; and
- Smart cards will permit the compiling and updating of standardised
patient information using a common platform.
The challenges in achieving such uses lie in standardising the coding
and formats for clinical and health-related data and in
standardising patient identification while protecting privacy.
The National Health Information Management Advisory Council has
developed a national plan of action for information management in the
health sector.12 However, gaps in private
sector representation on the Council need to be addressed urgently.
Further, the Commonwealth must take the lead in legislatively
mandating the development of such electronic standardisation
requirements. This would accelerate progress to be made in
efficiencies from e-commerce and from performance measurement
across the health system.
Rising consumer expectations
As the post-war "baby boomers" become key healthcare consumers, they
will demand more for themselves and for their frail, aged parents.
Consumers have aggressively embraced the Internet to acquire health
information. The Internet will also strengthen the role of consumers
in their interactions with practitioners and healthcare
institutions, and create a powerful new tool to help people manage
their own health risks. These empowered consumers will demand better
information to ensure quality and safety in healthcare. Consumerism
will also foster a demand for a wide range of choice of new services and
products, many of which will not be paid for by public Medicare.
Medical advances, technological change and clinical practice
Medical advances and new technologies are likely to continue to
develop and will put pressure on cost growth.
- The Human Genome Project will dramatically alter healthcare.
- In an era of "individual medicine", genetic screening will identify
health risks, and new treatments and precisely targeted
pharmaceuticals will emerge.
- Advances will occur with bioengineered organs, organ
transplantation, artificial skin and bones, methods of promoting
and inhibiting angiogenesis, and new vaccines.
- Point-of-care testing, such as hand-held blood and saliva
analysers, will move testing to the bedside, the clinic and the home.
- Telemonitoring in the home will alter demand for home health aides.
Berwick envisages that, in the information age, medical practice
will be a "knowledge producing" enterprise and not the "contact
producing" enterprise of the last century.13 That knowledge will
include the best evidence for diagnosis and treatments. There will be
a greater focus on the development of standards of care, clinical
guidelines and protocols, and on prevention, as well as ambulatory or
home care.
A greying Australia
Compared with the uncertainties of other future impacts, the
consequences of demographic change are more certain. The Australian
Bureau of Statistics14 projects that the share of
the population over age 65 will rise from 12.4% in 2001 to 18% in 2021 as
the first wave of the "baby boomers" reaches 75 years. In 2021, the
median age will be 40.4 years. Under current arrangements, the burden
of increased future health costs would fall on the relatively
diminished numbers of non-elderly. Combined with the increased
burden of social security, the load may be too great. Governments will
need to decide what core elements the tax-funded health system will
cover. It is likely that some of the increased costs will have to be
reallocated to the elderly. It is likely too that they will aim to
protect their superannuated livelihoods through long term care
insurance as they enjoy longer life expectancy.
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The ideal future financing model | |
An ideal model for future healthcare financing is outlined in the Box.
I have described this model in greater detail elsewhere.15
Advocates for one single health funder, while largely driven by
ideology, are campaigning for all health services to be funded
through a government-run, single government payer system. Debate
over whether government funding or private insurance constitutes
the ideal financing model is reaching resolution in a number of
overseas countries. The answer seems to be both. On average, private
insurance pays about 10% of healthcare costs in OECD countries and is
growing at a rate of 5%-7% a year. According to the report
HealthCast 2010: smaller world, bigger
expectations,16 these trends mean that
most of the industrialised world will have both a strong publicly
funded government health program and a private, market-based one.
While acknowledging areas for improvement in both sectors, on
balance the mixed public-private system works well in Australia and
offers the best foundation for the future. This aspect of the overall
framework of Medicare allows for choice by consumers, rather than the
alternative of a totally government-controlled, nationalised
health system. In addition, with proposals such as that of the
Democrats for regional health authorities to pay medical
practitioners on a capitation or salaried basis,17 it could be
wise for medical practitioners themselves to have the option of
another payer.
Ideally, within the future Medicare framework, private health
insurers should be able to offer their members a comprehensive range
of health services, which should include, as a minimum, ambulatory
medical services and inpatient services. This would extend the
benefits of a mixed system to both consumers and medical
practitioners.
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| Footnotes | * Brian Harradine, Independent Tasmanian Senator in Federal Parliament (from 1975 to the present).
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References | |
- Donelan K, Blendon RJ, Schoen C, et al. The cost of health system
change: public discontent in five nations. Health Affairs
1999; 18(3): 206-216.
-
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Australia's health
services expenditure to 1997-98. Canberra: AIHW, 1999 (Health and
Welfare Expenditure Series -- Health Expenditure Bulletin No. 15).
-
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Australian hospital
statistics 1997-98. Canberra: AIHW, 1999. (Health Services Series
AIHW Catalogue No. HSE 6.)
-
Tu HT, Kemper P, Wong HJ. Do HMOs make a difference? Use of health
services. Inquiry 2000; 36(4): 400-410.
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Weinick RM, Cohen JW. Levelling the playing field: managed care
enrolment and hospital use, 1987-1996. Health Affairs 2000;
19(3): 178-184.
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Australian Department of Health, Housing, Local Government and
Community Services. Reform of private health insurance. A
discussion paper. Canberra: AGPS, 1993.
-
Private Health Insurance Administration Council. Quarterly
statistics. March 2000. Canberra: PHIAC (May 14), 2000
<www.phiac.org.au> (accessed 7 June 2000).
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Industry Commission. Private health insurance. Canberra: AGPS,
1997. (Report No. 57.)
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Beazley K. Health insurance rebate. 4QR Radio: 09:00 News, 22 Feb,
2000.
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Mathers CD, Vos ET, Stevenson CE, Begg SJ. The Australian Burden of
Disease Study: measuring the loss of health from diseases, injuries
and risk factors. Med J Aust 2000; 172: 592-596.
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Goldsmith J. How will the Internet change our health system?
Health Affairs 2000: 19(1): 148-156.
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National Health Information Management Advisory Council.
Health Online: a health information action plan for Australia.
Canberra: AusInfo, 1999
<www.health.gov.au/healthonline> (accessed 7 June 2000).
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Berwick D. Knowledge always on call. Modern Healthcare
1999; 29(39) Suppl: 2-4.
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Australian Bureau of Statistics. Population projections: 1997
to 2051. Canberra: ABS, 1998. (Catalogue No. 3222.0.)
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Cunningham FC. Medicare reform: via managed care or managed
competition? Healthcover 1997; February-March: 8-16.
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PricewaterhouseCoopers. HealthCast 2010: smaller world,
bigger expectations. Dallas, Tex: PricewaterhouseCoopers, 1999.
-
Australian Democrats. Health reform: delivering a remedy.
Canberra: Australian Democrats (April 17), 2000
<www.democrats.org.au/campaigns/health/> (accessed 7
June 2000).
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Authors' details |
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Frances Cunningham is the Executive Director of the New
South Wales Health Funds Association, and a member of the NSW Private
Health Forum. She has a background as a healthcare consultant, health
manager, health policy analyst and health services researcher. She
was formerly Senior Policy Adviser to two NSW Ministers for Health,
and a member of the NSW Senior Executive Service. She headed the
Commonwealth Task Force which developed the discussion paper
"Health maintenance organisations: a development program under
Medicare" for former Federal Minister for Health, Dr Neal Blewett.
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NSW Health Funds Association, Sydney, NSW.
Frances C Cunningham, ScD, Executive Director.
Reprints: Dr F C Cunningham, NSW Health Funds Association, PO Box
A2572, Sydney South, NSW 1235.
francescATtpgi.com.au
The views expressed are solely those of the author, and no endorsement
by the NSW Health Funds Association is intended or should be inferred.
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| | A future national health insurance porgram15
The objectives of a national insurance program should include:
- Universal coverage;
- A financially stable and viable program;
- Choice - and adequate information for Australians
to make informed choices; and
- Comprehensiveness of coverage.
Comprehensiveness of coverage will need to include:
- Better coverage for aged healthcare services;
- Access to quality healthcare; and
- Affordability for both those covered and those financing the program.
Funding of the program should ensure:
- Macroeconomic efficiency - the costs of healthcare should not exceed an acceptable share of national resources;
- Microeconomic efficiency - the mix of services chosen should secure health outcomes and consumer satisfaction at minimum cost; and that
- Funding arrangements are transparent to the public.
Financing mechanisms for Medicare will need to be reviewed:
- the levy,
- the tax regime, including relevant income-tax credits
and debits,
- the Commonwealth-State grants arrangements; and
- the Australian Health Care Agreements.
Other aspects of the model:
- Tax-based financing - an appropriate vehicle for those choosing public Medicare could be the existing Medicare levy (essentially an income-tax), although it should be adjusted on a sound actuarial basis to reflect the true health contribution, with an adjustment to financing from general income tax.
- Health insurance premiums - for those choosing to directly pay for private health insurance, premiums would be paid to health insurers. Financing for them could include a levy exemption or, if they did pay a levy, their risk-adjusted Medicare funds would flow on to the health insurer. Community rating would continue to apply to individual premium contributions. As at present, people would continue to contribute to social support through their general tax dollars.
Ultimately, health insurance contributions should probably be a combination of employee and employer contributions, analogous to superannuation. The fringe benefits tax on employer contributions should be removed.
- Competition - under this model, strong competition would be possible between public and private health funders, both providing coverage for at least a standard comprehensive benefits package. Both sectors would be able to contract
on a competitive basis for the most cost-effective quality providers, whether in the public or private sector.
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