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Public Health

The Australian Burden of Disease Study: measuring the loss of health from diseases, injuries and risk factors

In 1998-1999 the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare carried out a national study of the burden of disease and injury in Australia,1,2 in close collaboration with the Victorian Department of Human Services, which conducted a parallel analysis concurrently in Victoria.3,4 Here, the principal investigators present the key findings.

Colin D Mathers, E Theo Vos, Chris E Stevenson and Stephen J Begg

MJA 2000; 172: 592-596
For editorial comment, see page 572

Abstract - Years of life lost due to mortality (YLL) - Years lost due to disability (YLD) - Total disease burden (DALYs) - Projected burden of disease in 2016 - Burden attributable to risk factors - Discussion - Acknowledgements - References - Authors' details
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Abstract
  • This is an overview of the first burden of disease and injury studies carried out in Australia. Methods developed for the World Bank and World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study were adapted and applied to Australian population health data.
  • Depression was found to be the top-ranking cause of non-fatal disease burden in Australia, causing 8% of the total years lost due to disability in 1996. Mental disorders overall were responsible for nearly 30% of the non-fatal disease burden.
  • The leading causes of total disease burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) were ischaemic heart disease and stroke, together causing nearly 18% of the total disease burden. Depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden, accounting for 3.7% of the total burden.
  • Of the 10 major risk factors to which the disease burden can be attributed, tobacco smoking causes an estimated 10% of the total disease burden in Australia, followed by physical inactivity (7%).


The Australian and Victorian burden of disease and injury studies were the first comprehensive studies of this type in Australia. Both studies used methods developed for the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD)5 to quantify the loss of health from a comprehensive set of 176 causes of disease and injury and for 10 major risk factors. They used a common metric, the disability-adjusted life year (or DALY), which combines information on both the impact of premature death and the impact of disability and other non-fatal health outcomes. One DALY can be thought of as one lost year of "healthy" life, and the burden of disease as a measurement of the gap between current health status and an ideal situation of living into old age free of disease and disability. DALYs have previously been used to provide a comprehensive assessment of the global burden of disease and injury for the World Bank,6 to inform global priority setting for health research,7 and to report on trends in population health across the world.8

The methodology used in the studies is described in Box 1.



Years of life lost due to mortality (YLL)
Ischaemic heart disease is by far the largest cause of years of life lost in both males and females, accounting for 20.5% of the mortality burden in 1996. Ischaemic heart disease is followed by stroke and breast cancer in females, and by lung cancer and suicide in males (Box 2A).

Using a small area-based measure of socioeconomic disadvantage, we found that, in 1996, the most disadvantaged quintile of the Australian population lost 35% more years of life than the least disadvantaged quintile. For Australians aged less than 65 years, the differential burden between the lowest and highest quintiles is even greater, with a 60% excess burden in the most disadvantaged group.



Years lost due to disability (YLD)
Mental disorders are the leading cause of YLD, accounting for nearly 30% of the non-fatal disease burden in Australia in 1996 (Box 2B). These are followed by nervous system and sense organ disorders (16%) and chronic respiratory diseases (9%). In terms of specific conditions, depression is the leading cause of non-fatal disease burden in Australia, causing 8% of the total YLD in 1996 (Box 2B). Hearing loss and alcohol dependence and harmful use of alcohol are the second and third leading contributors to YLD for males. Dementia and osteoarthritis are the second and third leading contributors for females.

In contrast to the mortality burden, the disability burden is smaller for males than for females. Neurological and sense organ disorders, mental disorders and musculoskeletal disorders are all more common in females. The male burden is higher for cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases and cancers. Females generally have a greater incidence and prevalence of the more common non-fatal health problems, whereas males have a greater incidence of the major diseases and injuries associated with high case fatality. Thus, some of the years of the longer life span women enjoy are lived with a lower quality of life.



Total disease burden (DALYs)
As shown in Box 3, inclusion of non-fatal health outcomes creates a substantially different picture to that provided by traditional mortality statistics: mental disorders are now the third leading cause of overall burden (14% of total), after cardiovascular diseases (20%) and cancers (19%). Both the burden of nervous system disorders (which includes dementia) and that of chronic respiratory conditions are similar in magnitude to that of injuries. The total disease burden in males is 13% higher than that in females.

Ischaemic heart disease and stroke head the list of specific causes of disease burden, together causing nearly 18% of the total (Box 2C). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer together account for another 7.3% of the total burden. Depression is the fourth leading cause of disease burden in Australia, accounting for nearly 4% of the total burden.

The burden of mental disorders in Australia is dominated by affective (depression and bipolar disorder), substance use and anxiety disorders. Substance use disorders are the leading cause of mental disorders for males, accounting for 33% of their mental health DALYs (Box 4). The major cause of mental disorders for women is depression, accounting for 34% of women's mental health DALYs. The large burden from mental disorders in young adults is partly due to the high prevalence of these disorders at these ages and partly because the DALY, as an incidence-based measure, attributes the future stream of ill-health to the age at incidence (Box 5).

Inclusion of the burden of suicide and ischaemic heart disease attributable to depression increases the burden of depression from 3% to 5% of total DALYs. Inclusion of the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to diabetes increases the diabetes burden also from 3% to 5%. Depression and diabetes then become equal third leading causes of the burden of disease in Australia.



Projected burden of disease in 2016
The Victorian Burden of Disease Study projected a 25% drop in the rate of all-cause DALYs in men and a 17% drop in women over the next 20 years. In Victoria, life expectancy is projected to increase by 4.6 years for men and 3.6 years for women. Mortality is forecasted to drop considerably faster than disability. The large gap in projected changes between YLL and YLD rates suggests that some of the further gains in life expectancy may occur at the expense of quality of life.

Large health gains are expected in all cardiovascular diseases except cardiomyopathy. Large gains are also predicted for injuries, COPD in men and in a number of cancers (lung cancer in men; bowel cancer, stomach cancer and leukaemia in both sexes). Adverse mortality trends are driving projected increases in the burden rates from lung cancer and dementia in women and heroin overdose deaths, melanoma and diabetes in men (Box 6).

Cancer will be the largest cause of disease burden in 2016, as improvements in cardiovascular health will outpace the slower improvements in cancer. Population ageing will increase the burden of neurological, sense organ and musculoskeletal disorders relative to other conditions. The burden of injuries is expected to decrease partly due to favourable trends and partly as a consequence of population ageing.

The burden of dementia will increase for both sexes, and, for women in Victoria, may take over from ischaemic heart disease as the largest cause of DALYs in 2016. Diabetes, prostate cancer, hearing loss and heroin dependence in men, and lung cancer in women, are other conditions that will move up the ranking order. Stroke in men and women, and road traffic accidents, suicide and COPD in men, will drop considerably in their ranking order of projected burden in 2016.



Burden attributable to risk factors
Risk factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, hypertension, high blood cholesterol level, obesity and inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption are responsible for large proportions of the overall burden of disease in Australia (Box 7). The leading risk factor is tobacco smoking (responsible for 10% of the total burden), followed by physical inactivity (7%), then high blood pressure and obesity. Insufficient intake of fruits and vegetables (fewer than five servings per day) causes an estimated 3% of the total burden, and 11% of the cancer burden in Australia.

The net harm associated with alcohol consumption is around 2% of the total burden, as the ill-health associated with harmful and hazardous drinking is offset by benefits from alcohol in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. The protective effect is only relevant after age 45, whereas the harmful effects of alcohol are apparent at all ages. For males, illicit drugs are responsible for a level of harm similar to that of alcohol (2.2% of total male burden of disease). Just over half this burden is due to premature mortality, the other half to YLD resulting from drug dependence or harmful use.


Discussion Burden of disease analysis provides a unique perspective on health, one that integrates fatal and non-fatal outcomes, yet allows the two classes of outcomes to be examined separately. Among the top 15 causes of burden of disease and injury in Australia are four non-fatal or low-fatality diseases: depression, asthma, osteoarthritis and hearing loss. The burden of mental illnesses such as depression and alcohol dependence, and of non-fatal diseases such as osteoarthritis and hearing loss, has been seriously underestimated by traditional approaches to disease burden assessment that disregard disability and take into account only deaths.

The calculation of YLL is straightforward, and the precision of the estimates is almost entirely dependent on the quality of the data on the underlying cause of death. The calculation of the disability burden (YLD) requires much more extensive epidemiological modelling, drawing on a diverse range of data sources, research findings and expert opinion. Thus, the precision of the YLD estimates is not quantifiable in the usual statistical sense. As a next step in these studies, we plan to model the uncertainty of these burden of disease estimates using simulation modelling and sensitivity analyses.

Estimates of the burden attributable to each risk factor are based as far as possible on studies that controlled for other relevant risk factors, but it is likely that the complexity of the interaction between risk factors has not been fully captured. Despite this reservation, the conclusion remains that each of the risk factors analysed is responsible for much ill health, similar in magnitude to the top 10 diseases.

Projections of the burden of disease to 2016 highlight the adverse trends in tobacco-related diseases for women, and diabetes and substance abuse for men, and the impact of population ageing in increasing the disability burden. These findings suggest that tobacco control, and combating physical inactivity and overweight and obesity, should be continuing priorities for public health action.

The extensive epidemiological modelling for over 1200 disease and sequelae categories resulted in the identification of many gaps and deficiencies in Australian population health data (even given the high quality and extensive availability of such data in Australia compared with many other countries). Rather than avoid areas with poor or unavailable information, these studies attempt to make the best possible, internally consistent estimates within a comprehensive framework.

These studies are a first step in exploring the usefulness of burden of disease methods for Australia. There are major gaps in our knowledge about the effectiveness of interventions and the associated costs. Linking of burden of disease analyses to studies of the cost-effectiveness of interventions for major health problems will allow these interventions to be judged both in terms of cost-effectiveness, and their relative impacts in reducing the burden of disease and ill-health. Until these analyses can be done, however, the results reported here provide an indication of the "unfinished" health agenda in Australia, identifying areas in which additional health gains can be made.



Acknowledgements
The Australian Burden of Disease Study was carried out with funding support from the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care. We thank other members of the Australian and Victorian project teams who assisted in analyses, data collection and literature reviews: Bruno Ridolfo, Simon Eckermann, James Morris, Ying Chen, Derrick Bui, Nittita Prasopa-Plaizier, Bernadette Pound, Anne Magnus and Sean Tobin.


References
  1. Mathers C, Vos T, Stevenson C. The burden of disease and injury in Australia. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Canberra: AIHW, 1999. Also at: <http://www.aihw.gov.au/publications/health/bdia.html> (accessed 12 May 2000).
  2. Mathers C, Vos T, Stevenson C. The burden of disease and injury in Australia summary report. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Canberra: AIHW, 1999. Also at: <http://www.aihw.gov.au/publications/health/bdiasr.html> (accessed 12 May 2000).
  3. Vos T, Begg S. The Victorian Burden of Disease Study: Mortality. Melbourne: Public Health and Development Division, Department of Human Services, 1999. Also at: <http://www.dhs.vic.gov.au/phd/9903009/index.htm> (accessed 12 May 2000).
  4. Vos T, Begg S. The Victorian Burden of Disease Study: Morbidity. Melbourne: Public Health Division, Department of Human Services, 2000. Also at: <http://www.dhs.vic.gov.au/phd/9909065/index.htm> (accessed 12 May 2000).
  5. Murray CJ, Lopez AD. The Global Burden of Disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases, injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020. Vol 1. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard School of Public Health on behalf of the World Health Organization and the World Bank, 1996.
  6. World Bank. World Development Report 1993: investing in health. New York: Oxford University Press, 1993.
  7. Ad Hoc Committee on Health Research Relating to Future Intervention Options. Investing in health research and development. Geneva, World Health Organization, 1996.
  8. World Health Organization (WHO). The World Health Report 1999. Geneva: WHO, 1999.
  9. Stouthard M, Essink-Bot M, Bonsel G, et al. Disability weights for diseases in the Netherlands. Rotterdam: Department of Public Health, Erasmus University, 1997.
  10. DisMod [computer program], version 1.0. President and Fellows of Harvard College. All rights reserved. 1994. The Burden of Disease Unit, Harvard University. (This software can be downloaded from the WWW at: <http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/organizations/bdu/dismod/ index.htm> (accessed 12 May 2000).
  11. English DR, Holman CDJ, Milne E. The quantification of drug caused morbidity and mortality in Australia, 1995 edition. Canberra: Commonwealth Department of Human Services and Health, 1995.
  12. Beaglehole R, Dobson A, Hobbs MS, et al. CHD in Australia and New Zealand. Int J Epidemiol 1989 18 (3 Suppl 1): S145-S148.



Authors' details
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, ACT.
Colin D Mathers, BSc, PhD, Principal Research Fellow, Health Division;
Chris E Stevenson, BSc, MSc, Statistician, Health Division.

Department of Human Services, Melbourne, Victoria.
E Theo Vos, MD, MSc, Senior Epidemiologist, Policy Development and Planning Division;
Stephen J Begg, MPH, Epidemiologist, Policy Development and Planning Division.

Reprints will not be available from the authors.
Correspondence: Dr E T Vos, Policy Development and Planning Division, Department of Human Services, 555 Collins Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000.
Theo.VosATdhs.vic.gov.au

©MJA 2000
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1: Australian burden of disease studies - methodology

The disability-adjusted life year (DALY)
For each disease or health condition, DALYs are calculated as the sum of the years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) in the population and the years lost due to disability (YLD) for incident cases of the health condition. The Australian studies depart from the methods used for the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) in the following key areas: YLL are calculated using Australian projected life expectancies; age weights are not used; adjustments for the effects of comorbidity are included;1 and disability weights developed recently by Stouthard et al are used.9

The DALY measures the future stream of healthy years of life lost due to each incident case of disease or injury. It is thus an incidence-based measure rather than a prevalence-based measure. Both the GBD and the Australian studies apply a 3% time discount rate to years of life lost in the future to estimate the net present value of years of life lost. Undiscounted DALYs were also calculated, but are not presented here.

Years of life lost due to mortality (YLL)
Adjustments were made to deaths registration data to correct for problems relating to coding of causes of death. Deaths registered in 1996 in which the underlying cause fell into various "ill-defined" and "unknown" categories were proportionately redistributed across other relevant causes of death.1 The YLL for a given age is determined by the average cohort (projected) life expectancy for that age, discounting future years by 3% per annum. Unlike most potential years of life lost (PYLL) measures, YLLs do not exclude deaths above a certain age, and do not give a zero value to years of life lost above that age level.

Years lost due to disability (YLD)
YLD estimates are made for a comprehensive set of 176 disease and injury categories involving analysis of 1260 disease stages, severity levels and sequelae. For some conditions, numbers of incident cases are available directly from disease registers or epidemiological studies, but for most conditions only prevalence data are available. In these cases, a software program, DISMOD, is used to model incidence and duration from estimates of prevalence, remission, case fatality and background mortality.10 For each incident case of a particular condition, YLD is calculated as the product of the average duration of the condition (to remission or death) and a severity weight that quantifies the equivalent loss of healthy years of life due to living with the health condition. YLD calculations draw upon many different sources of data, including population health data collections, health service data, epidemiological studies (Australian and international), and expert knowledge and judgement. For most disease and injury groups, Australian experts were consulted during the development and revision of YLD estimates. The disability weights used in DALY calculations represent societal preferences for different health states, ranging from 0 - "good or ideal health" (preferred to all other states) to 1 - "equivalent to being dead". The Australian study uses actual or derived weights from the GBD and from Stouthard et al.9 These studies used similar methods to measure average societal preferences for health states.

Burden attributable to risk factors
Attributable fractions were calculated for risk factors using the methods outlined by English et al,11 based on best estimates of the prevalence of exposure to each risk factor, together with best available evidence of the relative risks of diseases or injury.

Projections
In the Victorian study, projections of the mortality burden were made by extrapolating age-, sex- and cause-specific mortality trends from 1979 to 1996 by log-linear Poisson regression methods taking expected changes in population size into account, and constraining the total number of deaths to age- and sex-specific projections of all-cause mortality. Lacking time series of the incidence of disease, we assumed that trends in mortality are accompanied by equal changes in disease incidence, with the exception of cardiovascular diseases, for which there is evidence that decreases in case-fatality rates and lower incidence of disease have contributed equally to the drop in mortality.12 A potential source of inaccuracy is the lack of trend data in the occurrence of non-fatal conditions, which forced us to assume a stable incidence.

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2: Top 10 causes of the mortality, disability and total disease burden in Australia, 1996
A: Mortality burden: percentage of total years of life lost due to mortality (YLL), by sex
Persons
(1348233 YLL)
Percentage
of total
Males
(752591 YLL)
Percentage
of total
Females
(595642 YLL)
Percentage
of total

1   Ischaemic heart disease
2   Stroke
3   Lung cancer
4   Suicide
5   Colorectal cancer
6   COPD*
7   Road traffic accidents
8   Breast cancer
9   Diabetes  mellitus†
10 Dementia

20.5
8.3
6.3
5.2
4.4
4.0
3.3
2.8
2.1
1.8

1   Ischaemic heart disease
2   Lung cancer
3   Suicide
4   Stroke
5   Road traffic accidents
6   COPD*
7   Colorectal cancer
8   Prostate cancer
9   Diabetes mellitus†
10 Cirrhosis

21.0
7.3
5.9
5.6
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.0
2.1
1.7
1  Ischaemic heart disease
2  Stroke
3   Breast cancer
4   Lung cancer
5   Colorectal cancer
6   COPD*
7   Dementia
8   Diabetes mellitus†
9   Road traffic accidents
10 Ovary cancer
19.7
9.5
6.8
4.7
4.4
3.9
2.6
2.5
2.1
2.0
B: Disability burden: percentage of total years lost due to disability (YLD), by sex
Persons
(1162041 YLD)
Percentage
of total
Males
(578720 YLD)
Percentage
of total
Females
(583321 YLD)
Percentage
of total

1   Depression
2   Dementia
3   Asthma
4   Osteoarthritis
5   Adult-onset hearing loss
6   Diabetes mellitus†
7   Alcohol dependence/abuse
8   COPD*
9   Stroke
10 Ischaemic heart disease

8.0
5.6
4.8
4.8
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.1

1   Depression
2   Adult-onset hearing loss
3   Alcohol dependence/abuse
4   Dementia
5   Asthma
6   COPD*
7   Diabetes mellitus†
8   Stroke
9   Osteoarthritis
10 Ischaemic heart disease

6.2
5.7
4.9
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
3.9

3.9
3.9

1   Depression
2   Dementia
3   Osteoarthritis
4   Asthma
5   Generalised anxiety disorder 6   Diabetes mellitus†
7   Vision disorders
8   Stroke
9   Adult-onset hearing loss
10 COPD*

9.8
6.8
5.7
5.3
3.5
3.5
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.5
C: Total burden of disease and injury: percentage of total disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by sex
Persons
(2510274 DALYs)
Percentage
of total
Males
(1331311 DALYs)
Percentage
of total
Females
(1178963 DALYs)
Percentage
of total

1   Ischaemic heart disease
2   Stroke
3   COPD*
4   Depression
5   Lung cancer
6   Dementia
7   Diabetes mellitus†
8   Colorectal cancer
9   Asthma
10 Osteoarthritis

12.4
5.4
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.2

1   Ischaemic heart disease
2   Stroke
3   Lung cancer
4   COPD*
5   Suicide
6   Road traffic accidents
7   Diabetes mellitus†
8   Depression
9   Colorectal cancer
10 Dementia

13.6
4.8
4.5
4.2
3.3
3.0
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.5
1   Ischaemic heart disease
2   Stroke
3   Depression
4   Dementia
5   Breast cancer
6   COPD*
7   Asthma
8   Diabetes mellitus†
9   Osteoarthritis
10 Colorectal cancer
11.1
6.1
4.8
4.7
4.6
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7

*Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (chronic bronchitis and emphysema). †Includes type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Total YLL, YLD and DALYs are in parentheses.    
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Box 3
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Box 4
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Box 5
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6: Age-standardised disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates per 1000 in Victoria in 1996
and projected to 2016, by selected causes and sex
  Males Females


1996 2016 Difference as
percentage of
1996 rate
1996 2016 Difference as
percentage of
1996 rate

All causes
  All-cause YLL
  All-cause YLD
144.0
80.1
63.8
108.3
51.8
56.5
-25%
-35%
-12%
128.6
64.8
63.8
107.0
45.6
61.3
-17%
-30%
-4%
Cardiovascular diseases
  Ischaemic heart disease
  Stroke
  Peripheral vascular disease
  Inflammatory heart disease
31.7
18.9
6.8
1.2
1.5
14.4
7.7
2.9
0.6
1.8

-54%
-59%
-58%
 -54%
 26%

27.2
13.7
7.8
1.3
0.8
13.5
7.0
3.2
0.5
1.2
-50%
-49%
-59%
 -61%
  53%
Cancer
  Lung cancer
  Breast cancer
  Bowel cancer
  Prostate cancer
  Stomach cancer
  Leukaemia
  Melanoma
29.3
6.8

4.4
3.9
1.3
1.2
1.2
24.6
4.2

3.2
4.8
0.6
0.9
1.7
-16%
-38%

-26%
22%
-58%
-26%
41%
26.5
3.4
6.9
3.8

0.9
0.9
0.7
23.3
4.3
6.0
2.6

0.4
0.7
0.6
-12%
   25%
-12%
-32%
-53%
-14%
 -20%
Mental disorders
  Depression
  Alcohol abuse/dependence
  Heroin abuse/dependence  

18.1
4.1
3.3
2.4

21.5
4.1
3.1
6.1
19%
--
-8%
152%

18.0
6.1
1.5
0.9

17.8
6.1
1.4
0.86

-1%
-
-8%
-3%

Neurological/sense organ disorders
  Dementia

12.7
3.8

12.5
3.9
-2%
4%

14.8
6.3

19.0
10.6

28%
 68%

Chronic respiratory diseases
  COPD
  Asthma
10.6
6.3
3.3
5.9
2.6
2.8
-44%
-58%
-15%
9.2
4.3
3.8
7.8
4.1
3.2
-15%
 -5%
-16%

Injuries
  Suicide

  Road traffic accidents
  Falls

13.8
3.9
3.9
1.3
6.9
3.0
1.0
0.5
-50%
-24%
-74%
-65%
5.6
1.2
 1.5
 1.1
3.0
0.8
 0.6
 0.7
-47%
-29%
-61%
 -42%
Diabetes mellitus 4.7 5.8 24% 4.1 3.6 -13%
Musculoskeletal diseases 3.8 3.8 -- 6.7 6.7 --

YLL=years of life lost due to mortality. YLD=years of life lost to disability. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
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7: The burden of disease attributable to 10 major risk factors, Australia 1996
   Percentage of total DALYs
 
  Persons Males Females

Tobacco
Physical inactivity
High blood pressure
Alcohol harm
Alcohol benefit
Obesity
Lack of fruit and vegetables
High blood cholesterol level
Illicit drugs
Occupation
Unsafe sex

9.7
6.7
5.4
4.9
-2.8
4.3
2.7
2.6
1.8
1.7
0.9

12.1
6.0
5.1
6.6
-2.4
4.3
3.0
3.2
2.2
2.4
1.1

6.8
7.5
5.8
3.1
-3.2
4.3

2.4
1.9
1.3
1.0
0.7


DALY=Disability-adjusted life year.
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