Large catastrophes have caused the collapse of empires and civilisations.1 Science and knowledge may help prevent some catastrophes, but urbanisation and narrowly concentrated food supplies, climate change and terrorism contribute to considerable risk. Viruses responsible for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza A (H5N1) or “bird flu” are among the most immediately identifiable risks. The World Health Organization has stated that the risk scenario associated with an outbreak of pandemic H5N1 influenza should be considered more serious than was previously assumed.2

Early self-isolation and social distancing measures are known to be highly effective.3 In the event of a lethal pandemic, emergency measures such as closing schools, staying home with family and friends, and avoiding contact with other people (until all have been immunised) will be instrumental in avoiding infection. People employed in essential services or occupations may be required to reside at their workplace for the whole period of the crisis. To achieve this type of isolation, sufficient food of adequate quality and quantity must be available.

The Australian Government and the Australian Food and Grocery Council (AFGC) have been planning for such a scenario for several years and have advanced plans in place (Russell Neal, AFGC, Canberra, ACT, personal communication). Nonetheless, the logistics and practicalities of household food stockpiling should be given greater media coverage. Australia has one of the most concentrated food supplies of any country, being dominated by two large supermarket chains. These organisations operate with such efficiency that their logistic chains hold only a few weeks’ supplies (Russell Neal, AFGC, personal communication). If the supply chain shuts down, or if there is no delivery from central stores, supermarkets’ stocks will be depleted within 2–4 weeks (Clare Buchanan, Public Relations Officer, Woolworths Pty Ltd, Sydney, NSW, personal communication). If domestic stockpiling begins at this late stage, then depletion will be accelerated.

Food supplies in the home will need to last as long as it takes for vaccine development and production. For ordinary seasonal influenza vaccines, there is a lag of 6 months or more after a new virus strain has first been discovered until a new vaccine is available for distribution. For weather-related catastrophes, food stockpiles might be required for much longer. A destabilised global climate, where small changes in atmospheric and ocean circulations have major consequences for temperature, rainfall, wind and storm patterns, may precipitate food stockpile dependence for several years.4 While long-term food stockpiling could be considered a governmental responsibility, we suggest that home stockpiling of food to last about 3 months might be done by individual households. This would allow a window of time for governments to put emergency action plans and food deliveries in place.

It is logical that the foods to be stockpiled should be staples and well accepted, easy to store, packed where possible in an inert gas for a longer shelf life, and not dependent on refrigeration. Importantly, they should be nutrient-dense, providing the recommended macronutrients and micronutrients for all members of the family.5 Ideally, they can be eaten without cooking, in case gas and electricity fail. Cost, volume and storage space are further considerations.

A food stockpile should provide an average energy intake of about 9 MJ (2150 kcal) per person per day in order to avoid significant weight loss. This is near the average intake — men need a little more than women, while children need less.5 In a home quarantine situation, physical activity is not likely to be high.

Box 1 shows a food “lifeboat” for one person for 10 weeks, and in Box 2, we provide an example of a food list that provides one person with 9 MJ per day for 10 weeks and covers all known nutrient needs. This example was generated using the nutrient analysis software, FoodWorks (Professional Edition 2007; Xyris Software, Brisbane, QLD), which is based on the composition of Australian foods, and commonly used by Australian dietitians. The recommended daily intake of specific macronutrients and micronutrients for adults and children is published by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing.5 Together, these two sources make it possible to compose diets with the appropriate quantity of nutrients. As most people have no access to detailed nutrient data, we have developed these examples to show what is needed, and typical of what might be acceptable. We acknowledge that such food lists are culturally and ethnic-specific, and that other food combinations are possible.

It would be cheaper and require less storage space to rely on multivitamin tablets rather than canned fruit and vegetables to cover the requirements of vitamins such as C and A. For this reason, Box 3 shows a food list that covers basic nutrient requirements when taken together with a multivitamin–mineral supplement. Indeed, some micronutrients do not need to be consumed on a daily basis because of the capacity of the body to store them (eg, vitamin A). Our calculations allow for cooking losses. While the foods can be eaten raw, some foods taste better cooked. In the event that the electricity or gas supply fails, a gas cylinder to fuel a barbeque might make eating more enjoyable.

In Australia, most people have adequate money and storage space to build up their own store of foods. For those who do not, federal, state and local governments should consider a plan to construct food stockpiles across the country.

Further suggestions, recipes and guidelines are given on our website (http://www.foodlifeboat.com.au). This is a university-linked, not-for-profit initiative, developed by dietitians and public health nutritionists.

1 The food “lifeboat” for one person for 10 weeks

All the foods listed in Box 2 in the quantities required are displayed. Food courtesy of Woolworths Pty Ltd.