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General Practice: Future

The destiny of general practice: blind fate or 20/20 vision?

Mabel Chew
MJA 2003; 179 (1): 47-48

We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives.
         — Edward D Wood, Jr, director and screenwriter (from the movie Plan 9 From Outer Space)

Nightmare in 2020:
a day in the life of Dr Zen, FRACGP

A tired-looking woman is sitting in the medical service bay at Corporation Enterprise (its motto: "Live long and prosper"). The electronic doors open to admit an overweight man. He faces her across a waist-high console. She scans his online medical record with her level 5 clearance. "Mr Unger, you have a five-minute consultation today. How can we help?"

"I don't feel well —."

"Chest pain?"

"No, just not feeling myself. Since my wife died. My complementary practitioner can't help me. Can you?"

"I'll try", Dr Zen replies. She selects the "Social stressor" option on screen. "Which of these symptoms do you have?"

She reels off a list. He replies. They work their way through the appropriate algorithm pathway.

"So, according to our evidence-based, Glerck-Pficham-sponsored guidelines, you have type III depression."

A silent alert flashes on the screen: "Time's up!"

"I'll prescribe you Ease, which [reading from the screen] has been effective in 360 hospital patients. You're also entitled to three telesessions with our cognitive behavioural therapist courtesy of Ease." The manufacturer of Ease has a Memorandum of Understanding with Corporation Enterprise.

Dr Zen issues the script and patient education printout. Mr Unger walks out the door, triggering another screen message: "Consultation was two minutes over time — third infringement today. Action 1: repeat practice management module during your Quality and Education session."

Dr Zen sighs. She had wanted to try the clinical research module instead. No wonder GP research in the Med e-J of Australasia is so dull: only non-clinicians and corporate administroids have time for it. But who wants to know about health service models and cost analyses?

"Action 2: 5% deduction from today's pay for time infringements." Yeah, well what about patient care instead of the bottom line for a change? She makes an e-note to mention it again at the next corporation meeting with the Managers. Mustn't put them offside though. They may be heavy-handed but they're the ones doing the real work in general practice — administering new government health initiatives that appear monthly.

Dr Zen is indentured to serve in this busy outer urban centre for another two years. Her husband is rural, but telemedicine clinics are making rural work easier these days. Like most doctors, he'd been put off becoming a GP by his compulsory term in "area-of-need" general practice. But beggars who miss out on other training schemes can't be choosers ...

After her corporate session, Dr Zen drops in on the nurse-practitioner clinic in the slums to see medical referrals from the nurse. This government got in on the promise of "Primary care for the public". But the post-election reality: a teary 72-year-old whose Work-For-the-Aged benefits have been restricted as she can't afford a computer and missed the e-reminder for her Well-70s check.

Dr Zen can't wait to do her taxi shift this evening. Thank goodness for time to talk to customers. It'll keep her going in more ways than one.

Ann Gregory and Mabel Chew
Deputy Editors, MJA

This section of the MJA General Practice issue is pure fiction. That is to say, we created a futuristic general practice scenario and asked others to create more of their own. Why should a medical journal resort to science fiction, you ask? The answer: because the future is malleable. If you believe the popular fictions of time travel, you'll know that seemingly minor differences in our actions now can lead to destinies which are poles apart. To help us mould the future, we conceived a section which attempted to generate hypotheses and innovative solutions. We're not contending that the results represent accurate predictions, but neither are these idle speculations. By asking what forces currently drive general practice, we can imagine different futures that test the implications (good, bad and indifferent) of these forces, and advocate change that preserves the good, topples the bad and optimises the indifferent. Here are some driving forces we identified:

The general practitioner

Gatekeeper of medical care in Australia
Desire to provide good care for the whole patient
Health promotion and disease management
Balancing work and personal interests
Corporatisation
Evidence–practice gap
Information overload, information management
Threat of litigation, indemnity woes
Professional and financial under-recognition
Autonomy versus structural straightjackets (regulation, red tape and time)
Workforce shortages

The patient

More informed, with higher expectations of healthcare, its accessibility and affordability
"Click-fix" mentality of instant gratification
More likely to have (more than one) chronic illness
More likely to require coordinated, continuous (not episodic) care

Society

Ageing and rise of grey power
Mixing of diverse ethnicities, cultures and values
More solo households and non-nuclear family groups
Technological advances in everything
Knowledge-based economy dictating labour market
Widening gap between haves and have-nots: rich and poor, technologically literate and illiterate
More government responsibility shifted to private enterprise
Continued rise of political conservatism and the far right
Globalisation of trade and thought
Environmental concerns and hazards
Ethical quandaries from technology and inequalities


I don't try to describe the future. I try to prevent it.
          — Ray Bradbury, science fiction writer


Next, we wrote a deliberately nightmarish scenario of general practice in the year 2020 (see the Box) showing the negative consequences of some of these forces. We sent the scenario to those involved in frontline and academic general practice, asking them to write short commentaries that

Each commentator was asked to discuss a different facet of the general practice milieu: the consultation,1 practice management,2 training,3 workforce,4 society5 and research.6 We believe that the result is a rich vein of thought that shows us there are core values to hold fast and work for. The future need not be beyond us!

We must be the change we want to see — Gandhi

  1. Usherwood TP. The consultation. Med J Aust 2003; 179: 53. <eMJA full text>
  2. Lipscombe MV. Practice management. Med J Aust 2003; 179: 51. <eMJA full text>
  3. Trumble SC, Glasgow NJ. General practice training. Med J Aust 2003; 179: 50. <eMJA full text>
  4. Coote W. General practice workforce. Med J Aust 2003; 179: 48-49. <eMJA full text>
  5. Heath I. Medicine in society. Med J Aust 2003; 179: 54-55. <eMJA full text>
  6. Beilby JJ, Furler JS. General practice research. Med J Aust 2003; 179: 55-56. <eMJA full text>

The Medical Journal of Australia.

Mabel Chew, Deputy Editor.

©The Medical Journal of Australia 2003 www.mja.com.au Print ISSN: 0025-729X Online ISSN: 1326-5377

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