eMJA     The Medical Journal of Australia

Home | Issues | eMJA shop | Classifieds | Contact | More... | Topics | Search | Login | Buy full access   

Letters

In reply: Covariate adjustment for prognostic baseline characteristics may decrease the sample size

Anthony C Keech and Val J Gebski
MJA 2003; 178 (7): 357-358

In reply: While we agree that covariate adjustment during analysis can be a potential mechanism for reducing sample size (even when there is no imbalance in the important covariate levels between the treatment groups), unless such analyses are prospectively planned then they will not allow valid statistical inference. This is because post-hoc adjustment is an exploratory procedure and may have involved examining any number of potential covariates.

Further, to quantify any anticipated sample-size gains would depend on specifying likely maximum covariate imbalances, overall covariate distributions and plausible effects of treatment within the covariate levels during study design. In practice, the study would then have to meet these assumptions for the calculated sample-size gain to be achieved.

Covariate adjustment is an accepted practice for subsidiary analysis in clinical trials, and can take account of differential effects in imbalanced subgroups. For example, see the case of an apparent chance imbalance in numbers of women in the treatment arms of the HERO-2 trial, where investigators presented both unadjusted and adjusted results.1

Where important predictors of the clinical outcomes are expected to be variable for the population under study, a particularly useful approach is to stratify the randomisation by those predictors.2 Such stratification allows for valid adjusted analyses.3

  1. The Hirulog and Early Reperfusion or Occlusion (HERO-2) Trial Investigators. Thrombin-specific anticoagulation with bivalirudin versus heparin in patients receiving fibrinolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction: the HERO-2 randomised trial. Lancet 2001; 358: 1855-1863. <PubMed>
  2. Keech AC, Gebski V. Managing the resource demands of a large sample size in clinical trials: can you succeed with fewer subjects? Med J Aust 2002; 177: 445-447. <PubMed><eMJA full text>
  3. Gebski V, Keech AC. Statistical methods in clinical trials. Med J Aust 2003; 178: 182-184. <PubMed><eMJA full text>

(Received 16 Jan 2003, accepted 23 Jan 2003)

NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW.

Anthony C Keech, FRACP, MSc(Epid), Deputy Director; Val J Gebski, MStat, Principal Research Fellow.

Correspondence: Dr Anthony C Keech, NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, Locked Bag 77, Camperdown, NSW 1450. tonyATctc.usyd.edu.au

AntiSpam note: To avoid spam, authors' email addresses are written with AT in place of the usual symbol, and we have removed "mail to" links. Replace AT with the correct symbol to get a valid address.

©The Medical Journal of Australia 2003 www.mja.com.au Print ISSN: 0025-729X Online ISSN: 1326-5377

Home | Issues | eMJA shop | Terms of use | Classifieds | More... | Contact | Topics | Search

The Medical Journal of Australia    eMJA